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Economic calendar

18 January 2010, Monday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:01	GBP	average	Rightmove HPI m/m	-2.2%		0.4%
Measures: Change in the asking price of homes for sale; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 15, 2010 FF Notes: This is the UK's earliest report on housing inflation, but tends to produce a relatively mild impact because asking prices and selling prices are not always correlated; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Acro Expand: House Price Index (HPI); й
23:30	JPY	average	BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
Speaker: BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa; Description: Due to speak at the Quarterly Bank Branch Managers meeting, in Tokyo; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: BOJ Governor Apr 2008 - Apr 2013. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has important influence over the nation's currency value. Traders scrutinize his speeches as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
03:30	JPY	low	Revised Industrial Production m/m	2.6%	2.6%	2.2%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 15, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
12:30	CAD	average	Foreign Securities Purchases	5.95B	5.23B	10.54B
Measures: Total value of domestic stocks, bonds, and money-market assets purchased by foreigners during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 Why Traders Care: Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities; Also Called: International Transactions in Securities;

19 January 2010, Tuesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
04:00	JPY	low	Household Confidence	39.5	40.3	37.6
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed households, excluding single-person homes; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 FF Notes: This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the calculation most commonly reported; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including overall livelihood, income growth, employment, and climate for major purchases; Also Called: Consumer Confidence Households;
08:30	GBP	low	RPI y/y	0.3%	2.2%
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and considered to be the primary gauge of an economy's health. To foreign investors, a strong economy is viewed favorably because it spurs investment opportunities in the domestic stock and bond markets. A strong economy also persuades the central bank to raise interest rates in an attempt to control growth. All of this activity will increase demand for the nation's currency.
08:30	GBP	high	CPI y/y	1.9%	2.6%	2.9%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 FF Notes: This is considered the UK's most important inflation data because it's used as the central bank's inflation target; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the sampling a done year earlier; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
08:30	GBP	average	Core CPI y/y	1.9%	2.3%	2.8%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the volatile food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco items; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
08:30	GBP	low	RPI y/y	0.3%	2.1%	2.4%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers for the purpose of consumption; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 16 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 FF Notes: RPI differs from CPI in that it only measures goods and services bought for the purpose of consumption by the vast majority of households, and it includes housing costs which are excluded from CPI; Acro Expand: Retail Price Index (RPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00	EUR	high	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	50.4	49.8	47.2
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the second or third Tuesday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany; Acro Expand: Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW);
09:00	EUR	average	ZEW Economic Sentiment	48.0	48.2	46.4
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the second or third Tuesday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. The ZEW survey is historically focused on the German economy, and Germany tends to lead the Eurozone economy, so this overall Eurozone outlook tends to be overshadowed by the German data released at the same time; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone; Acro Expand: Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW);
12:30	CAD	average	Leading Index m/m	1.3%	1.1%	1.5%
Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously; Derived Via: Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads; Also Called: Leading Indicators;
13:00	CAD	high	Overnight Rate	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%
Measures: Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds among themselves; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 2, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: BOC Governing Council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate; Also Called: Interest Rates, Key Interest Rate; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC);
13:00	USD	high	TIC Long-Term Purchases	19.3B	30.3B	126.8B
Measures: Difference in value between foreign long-term securities purchased by US citizens and US long-term securities purchased by foreigners during the reported period; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 FF Notes: This data represents the balance of domestic and foreign investment - for example, if foreigners purchased $100 billion in US stocks and bonds, and the US purchased $30 billion in foreign stocks and bonds, the net reading would be 70.0B. The market impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month; Why Traders Care: Demand for domestic securities and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to purchase the nation's securities; Also Called: Net Foreign Purchases of Long-Term Securities; Acro Expand: Treasury International Capital (TIC);
13:00	CAD	high	BOC Rate Statement
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 2, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC);
17:00	USD	low	NAHB Housing Market Index	16	17	15
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed home builders; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50 indicates a favorable outlook on home sales, below indicates a negative outlook; Derived Via: Survey of about 900 home builders which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future single-family home sales; Acro Expand: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB);
18:00	GBP	high	BOE Gov King Speaks
Speaker: BOE Governor Mervyn King; Description: Due to speak at the University Business Leaders Forum, in Exeter; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: Jan 26, 2010 FF Notes: BOE Governor Jul 2003 - Jun 2013. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE);
20:45	NZD	high	CPI q/q	1.3%	0.0%	-0.2%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 15 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 20, 2010 FF Notes: This is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, but it's the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
20:45	NZD	low	FPI m/m	-0.3%		-0.3%
Measures: Change in the price of food and food services purchased by households; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis; Acro Expand: Food Price Index (FPI);
22:30	AUD	average	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-3.8%		5.6%
Measures: Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Feb 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment, and climate for major purchases; Also Called: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment;
22:50	JPY	average	Tertiary Industry Activity m/m	0.4%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Measures: Change in the total value of services purchased by businesses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their spending can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, earnings, and investment;

20 January 2010, Wednesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
06:00	EUR	average	German PPI m/m	0.1%	0.2%	-0.1%
Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
08:30	GBP	high	Claimant Count Change	-10.8K	-3.3K	-15.2K
Measures: Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: It's the first indication of the employment situation, released a month earlier than the Unemployment Rate; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims; Unemployment Change
08:30	GBP	low	Unemployment Rate	7.9%	8.0%	7.8%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the past 3 months; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: ILO Unemployment Rate, Jobless Rate;
08:30	GBP	high	MPC Meeting Minutes	0-0-9	0-0-9	0-0-9
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, 2 weeks after the Official Bank Rate is announced; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: The breakdown of the MPC members' interest rate votes tends to be the most important part of the minutes. The vote is reported in an 'X-X-X' format - the first number is how many voted to increase rates, the second number is how many voted for a rate reduction, and the third is how many voted to hold rates; Why Traders Care: It's a detailed record of the BOE MPC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates, and offering clues on the outcome of future votes; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);
08:30	GBP	average	Average Earnings Index 3m/y	1.5%	1.6%	1.6%
Measures: Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: Data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. A figure that excludes bonuses is also released, but not included for lack of significance; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Also Called: Average Earnings Including Bonuses;
11:00	CAD	high	Core CPI m/m	0.4%	-0.2%	-0.3%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the 8 most volatile items; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 19 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Volatile items account for about a quarter of CPI but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Bank of Canada pays most attention to the Core data - so do traders; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Also Called: Bank of Canada Core CPI, CPI Ex Volatile Items; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
11:00	CAD	average	CPI m/m	0.5%	-0.1%	-0.3%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 19 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the calculation most commonly reported. This is the most important inflation-related release due to it's earliness and broad scope; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Also Called: All Items CPI; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
12:30	USD	average	Housing Starts	0.58M	0.58M	0.56M
Measures: Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). This data is slightly overshadowed by Building Permits because they are tightly correlated and a permit must be issued before the house can begin construction; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder;
12:30	USD	high	Building Permits	0.59M	0.59M	0.65M
Measures: Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12); Why Traders Care: It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building; Also Called: Residential Building Permits;
12:30	USD	average	Core PPI m/m	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
Measures: Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Food and energy prices make up about 40% of overall PPI which tends to mute the importance of the Core data; Also Called: Core Finished Goods PPI; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
12:30	CAD	average	Manufacturing Sales m/m	2.1%	1.6%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales made by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 16, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - manufacturers are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their sales can be an early signal of future activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Also Called: Manufacturing Shipments, Factory Sales;
12:30	USD	low
Speaker: Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William Dudley; Description: Due to speak at the Partnership for the City, in New York; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: FOMC voting member Jan 2009 - Jan 2020; Why Traders Care: Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
12:30	USD	high	PPI m/m	1.8%	0.1%	0.2%
Measures: Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 15 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the CPI data because the reports are significantly correlated; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Also Called: Finished Goods PPI. Wholesale Prices; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
14:30	GBP	average	MPC Member Posen Speaks
Speaker: External BOE MPC Member Adam Posen; Description: Due to speak at the Czech National Bank and Economic Society Seminar, in Prague; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: MPC voting member Sep 2009 - Aug 2012; Why Traders Care: BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);
20:30	NZD	low	Business NZ Manufacturing Index	51.9		52.9
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Frequency: Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 11, 2010 FF Notes: This report is often released earlier than scheduled. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Manufacturing Index;
20:45	NZD	average	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.5%	0.3%	0.8%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos;
20:45	NZD	high	Retail Sales m/m	0.1%	0.6%	0.8%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

21 January 2010, Thursday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	AUD	average	MI Inflation Expectations	3.6%		3.5%
Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 FF Notes: Full reports are only available to Melbourne Institute subscribers; Why Traders Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise; Also Called: Consumer Inflation Expectations; Acro Expand: Melbourne Institute (MI);
23:30	AUD	average	New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m	5.9%		3.3%
Measures: Change in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 21 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a sign of consumer confidence - rising demand for expensive durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
01:00	-	high	Industrial Production y/y	19.2%	19.8%	18.5%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle; Also Called: Industrial Output;
01:00	-	average	CPI y/y	0.6%	1.5%	1.9%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the sampling a done year earlier; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
01:00	-	low	Retail Sales y/y	15.8%	16.4%	17.5%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending;
01:00	-	high	GDP q/y	9.1%	10.7%	10.7%
Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 18 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Also Called: Real GDP; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
01:00	-	average	PPI y/y	-2.1%	0.7%	1.7%
Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers pay and charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
01:00	-	average	NBS Press Conference
Speaker: NBS Spokesperson; Frequency: Scheduled monthly; Next Release: Feb 12, 2010 FF Notes: The press conference has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read which announces the key economic numbers, then the conference is briefly open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that can have a significant market impact. Source changed frequency from quarterly to monthly as of Aug 2009; Acro Expand: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS);
01:00	-	average	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y	32.1%	31.5%	30.5%
Measures: Change in the total spending on urban capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Data represents the year-to-date investment compared to the same period a year earlier; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - changes in private and public investment levels can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings;
07:00	EUR	average	French Flash Manufacturing PMI	54.7	55.0	54.7
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Mar 2008, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
07:00	EUR	average	French Flash Services PMI	58.7	59.2	57.0
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Mar 2008, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
07:30	EUR	average	German Flash Services PMI	52.7	53.1	51.2
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Mar 2008, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
07:30	EUR	average	German Flash Manufacturing PMI	52.7	53.0	53.4
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Mar 2008, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
08:00	EUR	average	Flash Manufacturing PMI
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Jun 2007, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
08:00	EUR	average	Flash Services PMI
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 22, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Jun 2007, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
08:00	EUR	average	ECB Monthly Bulletin
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, 7 days after the Minimum Bid Rate release; Next Release: Feb 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB);
08:30	GBP	low	Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m	0.1%	1.0%
Measures: Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the fourteenth business day after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this data released about 10 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Final is not included for lack of significance; Why Traders Care: It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation;
08:30	GBP	average	Public Sector Net Borrowing	20.3B	18.6B
Measures: Difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both debt and investment implications; Frequency: Released monthly, on the fourteenth business day after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates a budget deficit, a negative number indicates a surplus;
09:00	EUR	average
Speaker: Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber; Description: Due to speak, in Berlin; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council Apr 2004 - Apr 2012. He's believed to be one of the most influential members of the council; Why Traders Care: ECB Governing Council members vote on where to set the Eurozone's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Deutsche Bundesbank (Buba), European Central Bank (ECB);
09:00	CHF	average	ZEW Economic Expectations	54.0
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed institutional investors and analysts; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Switzerland; Also Called: ZEW/Credit Suisse Economic Expectations; Acro Expand: Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW);
10:00	GBP	average	CBI Industrial Order Expectations	-42	-39
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates increasing order volume is expected, below indicates expectations are for lower volume; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their expectations can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Derived Via: Survey of about 550 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of order volume expected during the next 3 months; Also Called: Industrial Trends Survey; Acro Expand: Confederation of British Industry (CBI);
11:00	EUR	average
Speaker: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet; Description: Due to speak at the Annual General Assembly of the Manufacturers Association of Israel, in Tel Aviv, via video; FF Notes: ECB President Nov 2003 - Nov 2011. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB);
12:30	USD	high	Unemployment Claims	444K	441K
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Jan 28, 2010 FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
12:30	CAD	average	Wholesale Sales m/m	0.3%	0.4%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer spending - retailers generally order more goods from wholesalers when they expect consumer sales to increase; Also Called: Wholesale Trade;
14:00	USD	high	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	22.5	18.1
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. This survey can have a relatively mild impact because it's released a few days after the tightly correlated Empire State Manufacturing Index; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Derived Via: Survey of about 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district which asks respondents to rate the relative level of general business conditions; Also Called: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey;
14:00	USD	low	CB Leading Index m/m	0.9%	0.7%
Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 10 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously; Derived Via: Combined reading of 10 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads; Also Called: Leading Indicators; Acro Expand: The Conference Board (CB);
14:30	USD	low	Natural Gas Storage	-266B	-214B
Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Jan 28, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
14:30	CAD	high	BOC Monetary Policy Report
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly; Next Release: Apr 22, 2010 FF Notes: The BOC Governor usually holds a press conference to discuss the contents of this report about 45 minutes after release; Why Traders Care: It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC);
15:00	USD	average	Crude Oil Inventories	3.7M	2.2M
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the p 564 ast week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; Next Release: Jan 27, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
15:15	CAD	high	BOC Press Conference
Speaker: BOC Governor and Senior Deputy Governor; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Quarterly, after the release of BOC Monetary Policy Report; Next Release: Apr 22, 2010 FF Notes: The press conference has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is audio webcasted on the BOC website; Why Traders Care: It's among the primary method the BOC uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC);
17:30	GBP	average	MPC Member Tucker Speaks
Speaker: BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker; Description: Due to speak at the BGC Partners Seminar, in London; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: MPC voting member Jun 2002 - May 2011. In Mar 2009 his title changed from Executive Director to Deputy Governor; Why Traders Care: BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);

22 January 2010, Friday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast
23:30	AUD	average	Import Prices q/q	-3.0%	-1.7%
Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased by importers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, on the third Friday after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 23, 2010 Why Traders Care: It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods; Also Called: Import Price Index;
03:30	JPY	low	All Industries Activity m/m	1.2%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of goods and services purchased by businesses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because the services data, which accounts for around 60% of total industry activity, is covered in the Tertiary Industry Activity report released about a week earlier; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their spending can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, earnings, and investment;
08:30	GBP	high	Retail Sales m/m	-0.3%	1.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Sales Volume;
09:00	EUR	average	Industrial New Orders m/m	-2.2%	0.6%
Measures: Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 24, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
12:30	CAD	average	Retail Sales m/m	0.8%	-0.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
12:30	CAD	high	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.2%	0.2%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos;
13:00	EUR	average	Belgium NBB Business Climate	-7.9	-7.0
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, services and trade-related firms; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. This survey is highly respected due to its source and large sample size. Source changed series calculation formula as of April 2009; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Derived Via: Survey of about 6,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months; Also Called: Business Confidence Gross Synthetic Curve; Acro Expand: National Bank of Belgium (NBB);