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Economic calendar

25 January 2010, Monday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	high	PPI q/q	0.1%	0.1%	-0.4%
Measures: Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 20 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 27, 2010 FF Notes: This data has added importance because it's released ahead of CPI; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
06:00	EUR	average	GfK German Consumer Climate	3.4	3.2	3.2
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation;
22:50	JPY	low	CSPI y/y	-2.2%	-1.4%	-1.5%
Measures: Change in the price of services purchased by corporations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 24, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI);

26 January 2010, Tuesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
01:00	NZD	low	Credit Card Spending y/y	1.5%		1.8%
Measures: Change in total spending facilitated with a credit card; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 21 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's correlated with consumer spending and confidence - rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money;
02:26	JPY	average		0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
Measures: Interest rate at which the BOJ rediscounts bills and extends loans to financial institutions; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Variable, about 14 times per year; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Source does not give an exact release time - this event will be listed as 'Tentative' until the rate is announced. The BOJ began using this rate as its main operating target in Mar 2006. The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the Monetary Policy Statement released at the same time and the BOJ Press Conference held a few hours later; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: BOJ Policy Board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate; Also Called: Interest Rates; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
02:26	JPY	average
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Variable, about 14 times per year; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Source does not give an exact release time - the event will be listed as 'Tentative' until the statement is issued. Source first released in Jul 2008; Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the BOJ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
06:00	EUR	low	German Import Prices m/m	0.4%	0.1%	0.5%
Measures: Change in the price of imported goods purchased domestically; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: It contributes to inflation for businesses and consumers, especially those who rely heavily on imported goods; Also Called: Import Price Index;
06:00	CHF	average	UBS Consumption Indicator	1.26		1.20
Measures: Level of a composite index based on 5 consumer-based economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: Source first released in Jun 2005 and changed the series calculation formula as of Feb 2006; Derived Via: Combined reading of 5 economic indicators including consumer confidence, consumer spending, tourism, new car sales, and retail activity;
06:19	JPY	high
Speaker: BOJ Governor; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Variable, about 14 times per year; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: Source does not give an exact start time - the event will be listed as 'Tentative' until the press conference begins; Why Traders Care: It's among the primary methods the BOJ uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, the overall economic outlook, inflation, and clues regarding future monetary policy; Also Called: Interest Rate Press Conference; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
06:45	EUR	average	French Consumer Spending m/m	0.1%	0.7%	2.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted goods expenditures by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 23 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
08:00	EUR	average	Current Account	-4.6B	-3.1B	0.1B
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 22 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. The goods portion has no impact because it's a duplicate of the Trade Balance data released about a week earlier; Why Traders Care: It's directly linked to currency demand - a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country;
08:00	EUR	low	Italian Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
08:00	EUR	high	German Ifo Business Climate	94.6	95.2	95.8
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, and retailers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around 3 weeks into the current month; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: This survey is highly respected due to it's large sample size and historic correlation with German and wider Eurozone economic conditions. It tends to create a hefty market impact upon release; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Derived Via: Survey of about 7,000 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions and expectations for the next 6 months; Acro Expand: Information and Forschung (Ifo);
08:30	GBP	average	BBA Mortgage Approvals	45.0K	46.0K	45.9K
Measures: Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 24 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of housing market demand – most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market; Acro Expand: British Bankers' Association (BBA);
08:30	GBP	high	Prelim GDP q/q	-0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 22 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 23, 2010 FF Notes: There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Preliminary, Revised, and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Also Called: GDP First Estimate, GDP Preliminary Estimate; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
08:30	GBP	low	Index of Services 3m/3m	-0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the total GVA of the private and government services sectors; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: GVA is the difference between the value of a service provided and the value of the goods and services used to provide the service; Acro Expand: Gross Value Added (GVA);
08:45	GBP	high	BOE Gov King Speaks
Speaker: BOE Governor Mervyn King; Description: Due to testify, along with Deputy Governor Paul Tucker, on Financial Institutions before the Treasury Committee, in London; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: Feb 10, 2010 FF Notes: BOE Governor Jul 2003 - Jun 2013. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE);
13:00	USD	average	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	-7.3%	-4.9%	-5.3%
Measures: Change in the selling price of single-family homes in 20 metropolitan areas; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: Source first released in Dec 2006; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Acro Expand: Standard & Poor's (S&P), Case-Shiller (CS), House Price Index (HPI);
14:00	USD	low	Richmond Manufacturing Index	-4	0	-2
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers in Richmond; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the fourth Tuesday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. Tends to have a muted impact because there are earlier regional indicators related to manufacturing conditions; Derived Via: Survey of about 100 manufacturers in the Richmond area which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including shipments, new orders, and employment; Also Called: Richmond Fed Index, Manufacturing Activity Index, Composite Manufacturing Index;
14:00	USD	low	HPI m/m	0.4%	0.5%	0.7%
Measures: Change in the purchase price of homes with mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Source began m/m frequency in Mar 200 564 8; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Acro Expand: House Price Index (HPI), Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO);
14:00	USD	high	CB Consumer Confidence	53.6	53.6	55.9
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed households; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last Tuesday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions including labor availability, business conditions, and overall economic situation; Acro Expand: The Conference Board (CB);
22:30	AUD	average	MI Leading Index m/m	0.5%		1.0%
Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 9 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 50 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 17, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. Full reports are only available to Melbourne Institute subscribers; Derived Via: Combined reading of 9 economic indicators related to consumer confidence, housing, stock market prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads; Also Called: Westpac/MI Indexes of Economic Activity; Acro Expand: Melbourne Institute (MI);
22:50	JPY	average	Trade Balance	0.52T	0.61T	0.52T
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 23 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 24, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance;

27 January 2010, Wednesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	average	Trimmed Mean CPI q/q	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 23 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 28, 2010 FF Notes: The Trimmed Mean calculation helps expose the underlying inflation trend through component weighting and anomaly exclusion; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
23:30	AUD	high	CPI q/q	1.0%	0.4%	0.5%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 23 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 28, 2010 FF Notes: Although this data is extremely late relative to inflation data from other countries, it's the primary gauge of consumer prices and tends to create hefty market impacts; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
04:00	JPY	average	BOJ Monthly Report
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly; Next Release: Feb 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: It contains the statistical data that the BOJ Policy Board members evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint; Also Called: Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
08:30	GBP	average
Speaker: External BOE MPC Member Andrew Sentance; Description: Due to speak at the British Property Federation, in London; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: MPC voting member Oct 2006 - May 2011; Why Traders Care: BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);
10:00	GBP	high	CBI Realized Sales	13	11	-8
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed retailers and wholesalers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels; Derived Via: Survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume; Also Called: Distributive Trades Survey; Acro Expand: Confederation of British Industry (CBI);
14:00	USD	high	New Home Sales	370K	372K	342K
Measures: Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 25 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 24, 2010 FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of Existing Home Sales because the reports are tightly correlated; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a new home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, furniture and appliances are purchased for the home, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction;
14:30	USD	average	Crude Oil Inventories	-0.4M	1.4M	-3.9M
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 3, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
18:15	USD	high	FOMC Statement
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 16, 2010 FF Notes: The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. Why Traders Care: It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement, Fed Statement, Monetary Policy Statement; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
18:15	USD	high	Federal Funds Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%	<0.25%
Measures: Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 16, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the FOMC Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: FOMC members vote on where to set the rate. The individual votes are published in the FOMC statement; Also Called: Interest Rates, Fed Funds Rate; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
19:00	NZD	high	RBNZ Rate Statement
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Policy Assessment, Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ);
19:00	NZD	high	Official Cash Rate	2.50%	2.50%	2.50%
Measures: Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the Interest Rate Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: The RBNZ Governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers; Also Called: Interest Rates, OCR; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Official Cash Rate (OCR);
22:50	JPY	average	Retail Sales y/y	-1.1%	0.3%	-0.3%
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Policy Assessment, Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ);

28 January 2010, Thursday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
01:00	USD	average
Speaker: US President Barack Obama; Description: Due to speak at the State of the Union Address, in Washington DC; FF Notes: US President Jan 2009 - Jan 2013. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects - only speeches that might have direct market impact are listed on the calendar;
07:55	EUR	average	German Unemployment Change	-3K	17K	6K
Measures: Change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Data is prone to early leaks by news agencies. Leaks will be reported on the calendar but will be retracted if deemed incorrect; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless People;
09:00	EUR	low	Consumer Confidence	-16	-15	-16
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,300 consumers in Eurozone countries which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, including personal financial situation, employment, inflation, and climate for major purchases;
12:30	USD	high	Core Durable Goods Orders m/m	2.1%	0.4%	0.9%
Measures: Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods, excluding transportation items; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Orders for aircraft are volatile and can severely distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of purchase order trends; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders; Also Called: Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation;
12:30	USD	high	Unemployment Claims	478K	451K	470K
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 4, 2010 FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
12:30	USD	average	Durable Goods Orders m/m	-0.4%	2.1%	0.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: This data is usually revised via the Factory Orders report released about a week later. Durable goods are defined as hard products having a life expectancy of more than 3 years, such as automobiles, computers, appliances, and airplanes; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders;
13:45	USD	average
Speaker: US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner; Description: Due to speak at the Honeywell International Incorporation's factory, in Golden Valley; FF Notes: US Treasury Secretary Jan 2009 - Jan 2013. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects - only speeches that might have direct market impact are listed on the calendar; Why Traders Care: It's the Treasury Secretary's job to communicate the US President's economic policies, and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments;
14:00	USD	average
Speaker: US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner; Description: Due to testify on American International Group (AIG) before the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, in Washington DC; Next Release: Jan 28, 2010 FF Notes: US Treasury Secretary Jan 2009 - Jan 2013. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects - only speeches that might have direct market impact are listed on the calendar; Why Traders Care: It's the Treasury Secretary's job to communicate the US President's economic policies, and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments;
14:30	USD	low	Natural Gas Storage	-245B	-102B	-86B
Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 4, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
20:45	NZD	average	Trade Balance	-276M	-115M	2M
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 27 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Overseas Merchandise Trade;
20:45	NZD	high	Building Consents m/m	0.1%		-2.4%
Measures: Change in the number of new building approvals issued; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder; Also Called: Building Permits;
22:00	AUD	average	CB Leading Index m/m	-0.3%		-0.3%
Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 24, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously; Derived Via: Combined reading of 7 economic indicators related to money supply, building approvals, profits, exports, inventories and interest rate spreads; Also Called: Leading Indicators; Acro Expand: The Conference Board (CB);
22:15	JPY	low	Manufacturing PMI	53.8		52.5
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 300 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
22:30	JPY	average	Household Spending y/y	2.2%	1.6%	2.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted expenditures by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy;
22:30	JPY	low	Unemployment Rate	5.2%	5.3%	5.1%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending; Also Called: Jobless Rate;
22:30	JPY	low	National Core CPI y/y	-1.7%	-1.3%	-1.3%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding fresh food; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the last Friday after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: This data garners much of the media spotlight, but tends to be overshadowed by the Tokyo CPI data which is released a month earlier; Also Called: Core CPI, National CPI Ex Fresh Food; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
22:30	JPY	average	Tokyo Core CPI y/y	-1.9%	-1.8%	-2.0%
Measures: Change in t 514 he price of goods and services purchased by consumers in Tokyo, excluding fresh food; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Also Called: Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
22:50	JPY	average	Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FF Alert : There will be 2 simultaneous releases as the source skipped the release last month. This event pertains to the meeting held in the 3rd week of December 2009; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Variable, about 14 times per year, 30-50 days after Overnight Call Rate is announced; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board's meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
22:50	JPY	average
FF Alert : There will be 2 simultaneous releases as the source skipped the release last month. This event pertains to the meeting held in the 1st week of December 2009; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Variable, about 14 times per year, 30-50 days after Overnight Call Rate is announced; Next Release: Feb 23, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a detailed record of the BOJ Policy Board's meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic conditions that influenced their decision on where to set interest rates; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ);
22:50	JPY	average	Prelim Industrial Production m/m	2.2%	2.5%	2.2%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this indicator released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;

29 January 2010, Friday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:01	GBP	average	GfK Consumer Confidence	-19	-18	-17
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the last business day of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions including personal financial situation, climate for major purchases, and overall economic situation; Also Called: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence Barometer;
23:30	AUD	average	Private Sector Credit m/m	0.1%	0.1%	0.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the following month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
02:30	JPY	average	BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
Measures: Change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers and businesses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the following month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
04:00	JPY	low	Housing Starts y/y	-19.1%	-18.8%	-15.7%
Measures: Change in the number of new residential buildings that began construction; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder; Acro Expand: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism (MILT);
06:00	GBP	high	Nationwide HPI m/m	0.5%	0.4%	1.2%
Measures: Change in the selling price of homes with mortgages backed by Nationwide; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: This is the UK's second earliest report on housing inflation. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Also Called: Nationwide House Prices; Acro Expand: House Price Index (HPI);
08:00	EUR	low	Private Loans y/y	-0.7%	-0.4%	0.0%
Measures: Change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Source first released in Aug 2003; Why Traders Care: Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money;
08:00	EUR	average	M3 Money Supply y/y	-0.3%	-0.6%	-0.2%
Measures: Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends; Next Release: Feb 25, 2010 FF Notes: Source changed series calculation formula as of May 2001; Why Traders Care: It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation;
09:00	EUR	low	Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate	8.3%	8.4%	8.5%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: Source first released monthly format in Dec 2009; Also Called: Jobless Rate;
09:00	EUR	average	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	0.9%	1.2%	1.0%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month; Next Release: Mar 2, 2010 FF Notes: Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and EU member states that report early CPI data. While the report is narrow and void of line items, it's extremely early and can impact the market; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
09:00	EUR	average	Unemployment Rate	9.9%	10.1%	10.0%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because there are several earlier indicators related to Eurozone labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate, Eurozone Unemployment;
09:30	CHF	high	KOF Economic Barometer	1.73	1.72	1.77
Measures: Level of a composite index based on 12 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy over the following 6 months. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month. Source changed series calculation formula as of April 2006; Derived Via: Combined reading of 12 economic indicators related to banking confidence, production, new orders, consumer confidence and housing; Also Called: KOF Leading Indicators, Konjunkturbarometer;
12:15	USD	average	FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
Speaker: Federal Reserve Governor Donald Kohn; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: FOMC voting member Aug 2002 - Jun 2016; Why Traders Care: Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC);
12:30	CAD	average	RMPI m/m	2.2%	1.4%	-1.7%
Measures: Change in the price of raw materials purchased by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI);
12:30	CAD	low	IPPI m/m	0.9%	0.5%	-0.1%
Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: Only includes goods produced domestically; Also Called: Factory Gate Prices, Producer Prices; Acro Expand: Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI);
12:30	USD	average	Employment Cost Index q/q	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%
Measures: Change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 30, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer;
12:30	CAD	high	GDP m/m	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%
Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: Canada is unique in that they release fresh GDP data on a monthly basis. A quarterly GDP figure is also released, however it's merely a summation of the monthly data; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
12:30	USD	average	Advance GDP Price Index q/q	0.4%	1.3%	0.6%
Measures: Annualized change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 30, 2010 FF Notes: While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of inflation, encompassing all activities included in GDP, and is a primary instrument that the central bank uses to assess inflation; Also Called: GDP Deflator; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
12:30	USD	high	Advance GDP q/q	2.2%	4.5%	5.7%
Measures: Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 30 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Apr 30, 2010 FF Notes: While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final. The Advance release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Also Called: GDP First Release, Estimated GDP; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
13:45	USD	average	Chicago PMI	58.7	57.3	61.5
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the Chicago area; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Kingsbury subscribers 3 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of purchasing managers in Chicago which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Chicago Business Barometer; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI);
13:55	USD	low	Revised UoM Inflation Expectations	2.8%		2.8%
Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM);
13:55	USD	average	Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.8	73.1	74.4
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the last Friday of the current month; Next Release: Feb 26, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions; Also Called: Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM);

31 January 2010, Sunday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Real
21:30	AUD	low	AIG Manufacturing Index	48.5	51.0
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of about 200 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Manufacturing Index; Acro Expand: Australian Industry Group (AIG);
22:30	AUD	low	MI Inflation Gauge m/m	0.3%	0.8%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Mar 1, 2010 FF Notes: This data provides a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released CPI data. Full reports are only available to Melbourne Institute subscribers; Also Called: TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge; Acro Expand: Melbourne Institute (MI), Consumer Price Index (CPI);