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Economic calendar

2 August 2010, Monday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	AUD	common/calendar/impacts/	August Bank Holiday
Banks will be closed due to August Bank Holiday.
23:30	AUD	low	TD Securities Inflation (MoM)	0.3%		0.1%
TD Securities Inflation released by The University of Melbourne - Faculty of Economics and Commerce estimates inflation in the Australian economy. The higher inflation, the stronger the effect it will have on a probability of a rate hike by the RBA. Generally speaking, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
23:30	AUD	low	TD Securities Inflation (YoY)	3.5%		2.8%
TD Securities Inflation released by The University of Melbourne - Faculty of Economics and Commerce estimates inflation in the Australian economy. The higher inflation, the stronger the effect it will have on a probability of a rate hike by the RBA. Generally speaking, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
00:30	JPY	low	Labor Cash Earnings (YoY)	0.1%		1.5%
Indicator released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare shows the average income, before taxes, per regular employee. It includes overtime pay and bonuses but it doesn't take into account earnings from holding financial assets nor capital gains. Higher income puts upward pressures over consumption, therefore an increasing trend in earnings is inflationary for the Japanese economy. A higher than expected reading is bullish for the yen, while below the market consensus the result is bearish.
02:00	NZD	low	ANZ Commodity Price	-1.6		-0.8
ANZ Commodity Price released by the ANZ National Bank is considered as an early indicator of export price changes. The price changes influence GDP and exchange rates. An increase in prices may indicate strength of the NZD, while a decrease in prices may indicate weakness of the NZD. A high reading is seen as bullish for the NZD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
04:00	JPY	low	Vehicle Sales (YoY)	20.6%		15%
Vehicle sales released by the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association measures vehicle sales. It is worth noting that vehicle sales are a large component of the overall Japanese economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:15	CHF	average	Adjusted Real Retail Sales (YoY)	3.9%	4.1%	0.9%
The Adjusted retail Sales is conducted by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office. The retail sales is a survey of goods sold in the last month and serves as an indicator of the Swiss consumer demand. The figure here is real, not nominal, and not seasonally adjusted. Generally, an increase in this figure is bullish for the CHF while a decrease is bearish.
06:30	CHF	low	SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index	65.7	64.6	66.9
The SVME Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Schweizerischer Verband für Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of production growth in Switzerland. A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish for) the CHF, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:55	EUR	low	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing	58.4	61.2	61.2
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Germany. Normally, a result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
07:00	EUR	low	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing	55.6	56.5	56.7
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in the Euro Zone. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
07:30	GBP	low	Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing	57.5	57.1	57.3
The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP, the Manufacturing PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in UK. A result above 50 signals is bullish for the GBP, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
11:30	USD	average	Personal Consumption Expenditures (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
The Personal Spending released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce is an indicator that measures the total expenditure by individuals. The level of spending can be used as an indicator of consumer optimism. It is also considered as a measure of economic growth: While the Personal spending stimulates inflationary pressures, it could lead to rise interest rates. A high reading is positive (or Bullish) for the USD.
13:00	USD	low	ISM Prices Paid	57	55.6	57.5
The Institute for Supply Management ( ISM ) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, taking into account expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. The ISM prices Paid represents business sentiment regarding future inflation. A high reading is seen as positive for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative.
13:00	USD	average	ISM Manufacturing	56.2	54.6	55.5
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index shows business conditions in the US manufacturing sector It is a significant indicator of the overall economic condition in US. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
13:00	USD	low	Construction Spending (MoM)	-1%	-0.4%	0.1%
The Construction Spending released by the US Census Bureau is an indicator that measures the total amount of spending in the US on all types of construction. The residential construction component is useful for predicting future national new home sales and mortgage origination volume. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.
22:50	JPY	low	Monetary Base (YoY)	3.6%	3.7%	6.1%
The Monetary Base released by the Bank of Japan is the "Currency Supplied by the BoJ" including all the JPY in circulation, encompassing notes and coins as well as money held in bank accounts. It is considered as an important indicator of inflation, as monetary expansion adds pressure to the exchange rates. An acceleration of monetary base is considered as positive for the JPY, whereas a decline is seen as negative.

3 August 2010, Tuesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:01	GBP	low	Halifax House Prices (MoM)	-0.6%	-0.4%	0.6%
The Halifax House Price Index released by the HBOS is the UK''s longest running monthly house price series presents house prices and property price movements on a like-for-like basis. The housing prices are considered as a key indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:01	GBP	low	Halifax House Prices (YoY)	6.3%	4.6%	4.9%
The Halifax House Price Index released by the HBOS is the UK''s longest running monthly house price series presents house prices and property price movements on a like-for-like basis. The housing prices are considered as a key indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish ) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:30	AUD	low	Building Permits (MoM)	-6.6%	2.1%	-3.3%
The Building Permits released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (the Australian economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the AUD. The more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the AUD.
23:30	AUD	low	Building Permits (YoY)	26.6%	16%	13.2%
The Building Permits released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (the Australian economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the AUD. The more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the AUD.
00:30	AUD	low	ANZ Job Advertisements	2.7%		2.7%
The ANZ job advertisements released by the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ) presents the number of job advertisements in the major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet sites. It is used for forecasting employment growth in Australia as it indicates future labor market conditions.A high reading is seen as bullish (or postive) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish (or negative).
03:30	AUD	high	RBA Interest Rate Decision	4.5%	4.5%	4.5%
RBA Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the AUD. Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading Australian Dollar with RBA Rate Decision
06:15	CHF	high	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.5%	-0.7%
The Consumer Price Index, issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.The purchase power of CHF is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is positive for the CHF, while a low reading is negative.
06:15	CHF	average	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	0.5%	0.7%	0.4%
The Consumer Price Index, issued by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, measures the average price change for all goods and services purchased by households for consumption purposes. CPI is the main indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.The purchase power of CHF is dragged down by inflation. A high reading is positive for the CHF, while a low reading is negative.
07:30	GBP	low	PMI Construction	58.4	58.2	54.1
The PMI Construction released by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and Markit Economics shows business conditions in the UK construction sector. It is worth noting that the construction sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing sector does A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish for) the GBP, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:00	EUR	low	Producer Price Index (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%
The Producer Price Index released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). A high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:00	EUR	low	Producer Price Index (YoY)	3.1%	3.1%	3%
The Producer Price Index released by the Eurostat is an index that measures the change in prices received by domestic producers of commodities in all stages of processing (crude materials, intermediate materials, and finished goods). A high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
11:30	USD	average	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.
11:30	USD	high	Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY)	1.5%	1.3%	1.4%
The Core Personal Consumption Expenditure released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis is an average amount of money that consumers spend in a month. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation of the expenditure. It is a significant indicator of inflation. A high reading is bullish for the USD, while a low reading is bearish.
11:30	USD	low	Personal Income (MoM)	0.3%	0.3%
The Personal Income released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce measures the total income received by individuals, from all sources including wages and salaries, interest, dividends, rent, workers' compensation, proprietors' earnings, and transfer payments. This figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. A high reading is positive for the USD, whereas a low reading is negative.
11:30	USD	high	Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator	1.9%	1.3%	1.4%
Price changes may cause consumers to switch from buying one good to another and the PCE Deflator has the ability to account for such substitutions. This makes it the preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve and it's released by the Commerce Department.
13:00	USD	average	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	-29.9%	1.2%	-2.6%
The Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors is a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US It captures residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. As the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy, it generates some volatility for the USD. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
13:00	USD	low	Factory Orders	-1.4%	0.1%	-1.2%
The Factory orders released by the US Census Bureau is a measure of the total orders of durable and non durable goods such as shipments (sales), inventories and orders at the manufacturing level which can offer insight into inflation and growth in the manufacturing sector. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
19:30	USD	low	API Crude Oil Inventories	1.7M		-776M
API Crude Oil Inventories released by the API is a measure of change in crude oil storage. This report indicates the oil demand and the price volatility. As the oil prices have an impact on worldwide economy, some volatility for the currencies is expected, specially for the CAD. We usually have to take into account that Canada is the world's fourteenth largest producer of oil so a strong oil demand appreciates, or is bullish for the CAD.
20:00	USD	low	Total Vehicle Sales	11.1M	11.8M	12.1M
Total Vehicle sales released by the Autodata Corp. measures vehicle sales in the U.S. It is considered as an indicator for consumer confidence. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
20:00	USD	average	ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence	-45	-46	-50
The ABC/Washington Post Consumer Confidence released by ABC News and the Washington Post captures the level of confidence that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their personal financial situation. Generally, a high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
22:01	GBP	common/calendar/impacts/	BRC Shop Price Index (MoM)	1.5%		1.5%
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index measures price changes in the popular retail outlets in the UK. The changes in the SPI are widely followed as an indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
22:01	GBP	low	Nationwide Consumer Confidence	63	60
The Nationwide Consumer Confidence captures the level of confidence that individuals have in current and future UK's economy. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is also positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.
22:30	AUD	low	AiG Performance of Services Index	48.8		46.6
AiG Performance of Services Index released by the Australian Industry Group presents business conditions in the Australian service sector. The group surveys 200 manufacturers on their assessment of the business situation including employment, production, orders, prices, and inventories, and their short-term planning. A result above 50 is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

4 August 2010, Wednesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	average	House Price Index (QoQ)	4.8%	2.2%	3.1%
The House Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows changes in housing prices of major cities in Australia. The housing prices are considered as a key indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive or ( Bullish ) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or Bearish ).
23:30	AUD	average	House Price Index (YoY)	20%	17.2%	18.4%
The House Price Index released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows changes in housing prices of major cities in Australia. The housing prices are considered as a key indicator for inflationary pressures. A high reading is seen as positive or ( Bullish ) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative ( or Bearish ).
00:30	AUD	average	Trade Balance	1.65B	1.81B	3.5B
The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance
07:00	EUR	low	Purchasing Manager Index Services	55.5	56	55.8
The PMI service released by the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the Euro Zone services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the European service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the PMI manufacturing does. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
07:00	EUR	low	Purchasing Manager Index Services	54.8	57.3	56.5
The Services PMI released by the Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
07:30	GBP	low	Purchasing Manager Index Services	54.4	54.8	53.1
The PMI service released by both the Chartered Institute of Purchasing & Supply and the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the UK services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the UK service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the Manufacturing PMI does. Traders want the highest possible reading as that will be taken as positive for the GBP. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
08:00	EUR	average	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	0.1%
The Retail Sales released by the Eurostat is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.
08:00	EUR	average	Retail Sales (YoY)	0.6%	0.1%	0.4%
The Retail Sales released by the Eurostat is a measure of changes in sales of the German retail sector. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales.The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. The positive economic growth anticipates "Bullish" for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish, for the EUR.
10:00	USD	low	MBA Mortgage Applications	-4.4%		1.3%
The MBA Mortgage Applications released by the Mortgage Bankers Association presents various mortgage applications. It is considered as a leading indicator of the U.S Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall US economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
10:30	USD	low	Challenger Job Cut YoY
Challenger Job Cut YoY
11:15	USD	average	ADP Employment Change	19K	36K	42K
The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing Inc, is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.
13:00	USD	low	ISM Non-Manufacturing	53.8	53.5	54.3
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) shows business conditions in the US non-manufacturing sector. It is worth noting that the non-manufacturing sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the ISM Manufacturing does. A result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the USD.
13:30	USD	low	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	7.3M		-2.8M
EIA Crude Oil Stock is a measure of change in crude oil storage and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report indicates the oil demand and the price volatility. As the oil prices have an impact on worldwide economy, some volatility for the currencies, specially for the CAD is expected. We have to take into account that Canada is the world's fourteenth largest producer of oil so a strong oil demand appreciates, or is bullish for the CAD.
21:45	NZD	average	Unemployment Rate	6%	6.2%	6.8%
The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

5 August 2010, Thursday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
09:00	EUR	low	Factory Orders s.a. (MoM)	-0.5%	1.5%	3.2%
The Factory orders released by the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
09:00	EUR	low	Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY)	24.8%	21.9%	28.4%
The Factory orders released by the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaft und Technologie is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bearish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
10:00	GBP	high	BoE Interest Rate Decision	0.5%	0.5%	0.5%
BoE Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of England. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the GBP. Likewise, if the BoE has a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading British Pound with BoE Rate Decision
10:45	EUR	high	ECB Interest Rate Decision	1%	1%	1%
ECB Interest Rate Decision is announced by the European Central Bank. If the ECB is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the EUR. Likewise, if the ECB has a dovish view on the European economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is seen as negative, or bearish. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with the ECB Rate Decision
11:30	CAD	average	Building Permits (MoM)	-10.8%	0.6%	6.5%
The Building Permits released by the Statistics Canada shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (the Canadian economic development). It tend to cause some volatility to the CAD. The more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the CAD.
11:30	EUR	high	ECB Trichet's Speech
The European Central Bank's president Jean Claude Trichet was born in 1942, Paris. He graduated from the University of Paris in the facility of economics. In 2003 he became the president of the European Central Bank. He gives a press conference as to how the ECB observes the current European economy and the value of EUR. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. Generally speaking, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is generally seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).
11:30	USD	low	Continuing Jobless Claims	4571K	4520K	4537K
The Counting Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as negative, or bearish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as positive, or bullish.
11:30	USD	low	Initial Jobless Claims	460K	457K	479K
The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.
15:00	USD	average	Treasury's Geithner Speech
Timothy Geithner became the 75th Secretary of the US Department of Treasury in 2009. He gives a press conference as to how the Treasury Secretary observes the current US economy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. Normally, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).
22:30	AUD	low	AiG Performance of Construction Index	46.4		43.3
Based on 120 interviews to companies, the HIA/AiG Performance of Construction Index, released by the Australian Industry Group and the Housing Industry Association, is considered as an indicator that measures the conditions on the short and medium term in the construction market. Companies answer questions related to production, employment, prices supplier deliveries, inventories and new orders. A high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.

6 August 2010, Friday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	GBP	average	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.6%
The GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research is a GDP estimate report that comes out a month before the official announce. The report is highly reliable and would influence the UK monetary policy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as positive (or bearish).
00:30	AUD	high	RBA Monetary Policy Statement
The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negatvie (or bearish).
04:00	JPY	low	Coincident Index	101.2	101	101.3
The Coincident Index released by the Cabinet Office is a single summary statistic that tracks the current state of the Japanese economy. A rise in the index indicates an expansion of economic activity and a decline in the index indicates a contraction in economic activity. Generally speaking, a result that values above 50% signals appreciates (or is bullish for) the JPY, whereas a result that values below 50% is seen as negative (or bearish).
04:00	JPY	low	Leading Economic Index	98.6	98.7	98.9
The Leading Economic Index released by the Cabinet Office is an economic indicator that consists of 12 indexes such as account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. It shows the performance of the Japanese Economy over the short and mid-term. Generally speaking, a result above 50 is positive (or bullish) for the JPY, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
04:45	CHF	average	Unemployment Rate	3.9%	3.9%	3.8%
The Unemployment Rate released by the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Swiss lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Swiss economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CHF, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a	-0.3%	0.1%	0.1%
The Producer Price Index Out released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) s.a	-0.3%	-0.5%	-1%
The Producer Price Index Input released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by the UK manufactures when buying goods and services. It captures changes in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by the UK Manufactures. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a	5.1%	4.9%	5%
The Producer Price Index Out released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the price changes of goods produced by UK manufacturers. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Industrial Production (YoY)	2.5%	1.9%	1.3%
The Industrial Production released by the National Statistics measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
07:30	GBP	average	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	0.3%	0.6%	0.3%
The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Manufacturing Production (YoY)	4.3%	4.1%	4.1%
The Manufacturing Production released by the National Statistics measures the manufacturing output. Manufacturing Production is significant as a short term indicator of the strength of UK manufacturing activity that dominates a large part of total GDP. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:30	GBP	average	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.7%	0.3%	-0.5%
The Industrial Production released by the National Statistics measures outputs of the UK factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
07:30	GBP	average	Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a	10.7%	11.4%	10.8%
The Producer Price Index Input released by the National Statistics is a monthly measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by the UK manufactures when buying goods and services. It captures changes in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by the UK Manufactures. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)	2.9%	1.1%	-0.6%
The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)	12.4%	11.6%	10.9%
The Industrial Production released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures outputs of the German factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
10:00	CAD	high	Net Change in Employment	93.2K	10.3K	-9.3K
The employment Change released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Canada. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
10:00	CAD	high	Unemployment Rate	7.9%	7.9%	8%
The Unemployment Rate released by the Statistics Canada is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the Canadian Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Canadian lobar market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Canadian economy. Normally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while an increase is seen as negative or bearish.
11:30	USD	high	Nonfarm Payrolls	-221K	-65K	-131K
The nonfarm payrolls released by the US Department of Labor is one of the most important data. The report presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses. The monthly changes in payrolls can be excessively volatile. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
11:30	USD	low	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)	1.7%	1.6%	1.8%
The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.
11:30	USD	high	Unemployment Rate	9.5%	9.6%	9.5%
The Unemployment Rate released by the US Department of Labor is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the US economy. Therefore, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
11:30	USD	low	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%	0.2%
The Average Hourly Earning released by the US Department of Labor is a significant indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. A high reading is also positive for the USD, while a low reading is negative.
11:30	USD	low	Average Weekly Hours	34.1	34.1	34.2
The Average Weekly Hours released by the US Department of Labor is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. Excessive volatility is expected.
13:00	CAD	average	Ivey Purchasing Managers Index	58.9	56.3	54
The Ivey PMI released by the Richard Ivey School of Business captures business conditions in Canada. The Ivey PMI is an important indicator of business conditions and the overall economic condition in Canada. A result above 50 signals is seen positive , or bullish for the CAD, whereas a result below 50 is seen as negative, or bearish.
18:00	USD	average	Consumer Credit	-$9.1B	-$5.8B	-$1.3B
The Consumer Credit released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve is an amount of money that individuals borrowed. It shows if consumers can afford large expenses, which can fuel economic growth. However, a high figure may also indicate that the economy is overheating, as consumers borrow in order to live beyond their means. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.

Economic calendar

2 August 2010, Monday

3 August 2010, Tuesday

4 August 2010, Wednesday

5 August 2010, Thursday

6 August 2010, Friday

8 August 2010, Sunday

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	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Real
22:50	JPY	low	Adjusted Current Account	¥904.8	¥1360B
The Current Account released by the Ministry of Finance is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of Japan. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into Japan exceeds the capital reduction. A current account deficit indicates that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. A high reading is seen as positive for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative.
22:50	JPY	low	Trade Balance - BOP Basis	¥391B	¥769B
The Trade Balance released by the Customs Office is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the JPY. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Yen with Japan Trade Balance

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