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Economic calendar

13 February 2012, Monday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	average	Home Loans	1.8%	2%	2.3%
The Home Loans released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics presents the number of home loans. It indicates the housing market trend in Australia and a level of consumer confidence as large housing loans are taken out. A high reading is seen positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen negative (or bearish).
07:15	CHF	low	Producer and Import Prices (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%
The Producer and Import Prices is an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation. High inflationary pressure may anticipate interest rates hike by the SNB. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the CHF.
07:15	CHF	low	Producer and Import Prices (YoY)	-2.3%	-2.3%	-2.4%
The Producer and Import Prices is an indicator of consumer price inflation provided by the Federal Statistical Office. The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation. High inflationary pressure may anticipate interest rates hike by the SNB. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the CHF.
09:00	USD	high	Barack Obama Press Conference
US President Barack Obama holds a press conference regarding a range of issues, some of which may have an indirect impact on markets, and thus the USD.
12:00	CNY	low	FDI - Foreign Direct Investment (YTD)(YoY)	9.7%		-0.3%
The FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) is released by the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China presents the total investment capital made by foreign enterprises, economic organizations and individuals (including overseas Chinese, Hong Kong and Macao compatriots, and Chinese enterprises registered abroad) in accordance with Chinese relevant policies, laws and regulations, with cash, goods, technology start-up wholly foreign-owned enterprises in China, and Chinese domestic companies or economic entities, foreign joint ventures, cooperative enterprises or joint development of resources for investment (including reinvestment of foreign investment income), and projects approved by the relevant governmental departments. A large foreign direct investment is indicative of overall growth and demand in the China economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CNY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY.
20:45	NZD	low	Food Price Index (MoM)	0.2%
The Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Statistics New Zealand measures price changes of food bought by households. New Zealand depends upon exporting agricultural goods and food products. Thus, high food prices relatively suggest an increase of trade interests. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is negative (or Bearish)

14 February 2012, Tuesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	JPY	average	BoJ's Governor Shirakawa Speech
The BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa was born in 1949. He graduated from University of Tokyo and a M.A. in economics in 1977 from University of Chicago. In 2008 he became the governor. He gives a press conference as to how the BoJ observes the current Japanese economy and the value of JPY. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
23:01	GBP	average	RICS Housing Price Balance	-16%	-17%	-16%
The RICS Housing Price Balance survey released by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors presents housing costs in the UK. It shows the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole, as the housing market is sensitive to the business cycle. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:30	AUD	low	National Australia Bank's Business Conditions	1		2
The NAB´s Business Conditions released by the National Australia Bank looks at trading, profitability and employment conditions in Australia. It serves as an indicator of overall economic situation in the short term. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:30	AUD	average	National Australia Bank's Business Confidence	3		4
The National Australia Bank Business Confidence is a survey of the current business condition in Australia. It indicates the performance of the overall Australian economy in a short-term view. A positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the AUD, whereas a negative growth is seen as bearish.
02:00	JPY	high	BoJ Interest Rate Decision	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
BoJ Interest Rate Decision is announced by the Bank of Japan. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and rises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the JPY. Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps the ongoing interest rate, or cuts the interest rate it is negative, or bearish.
03:00	JPY	high	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
An official monetary policy statement is released by the Policy Board of the Bank of Japan. By communicating the committee´s vote outcome regarding interest rates and other policy measures as well as the economic conditions influencing their decision, the statement gives clue to future changes in monetary policy.
03:30	JPY	low	Industrial Production (MoM)	4%	4%	3.8%
The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as bullish for the JPY, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
03:30	JPY	average	Industrial Production (YoY)	-4.2%		-4.3%
The Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry measures outputs of the Japanese factories and mines. Changes in industrial production are widely followed as a major indicator of strength in the manufacturing sector. A high reading is seen as bullish for the JPY, whereas a low reading is seen as bearish.
08:30	GBP	low	DCLG House Price Index (YoY)	-0.3%	-0.1%	0.1%
The House Price Index released by the Department for Communities and Local Government shows changes in housing prices with the use of mix-adjusted method. The Index shows insight into housing trends and is considered as a key indicator for inflationary pressures. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive or (bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	low	Retail Price Index (MoM)	0.4%	-0.4%	-0.6%
Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Core Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3%	2.6%	2.6%
The Core Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. "Core" excludes seasonally volatile products such as food and energy in order to capture an accurate calculation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	4.2%	3.6%	3.6%
The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
08:30	GBP	low	Retail Price Index (YoY)	4.8%	4.1%	3.9%
Retail Price Index released by the National Statistics is a statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers. It is widely considered as a key measure of inflation that indicates an accurate reflection of the cost of living. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	0.4%	-0.5%	-0.5%
The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of GBP is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends.Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	-32.5	-21.1	-8.1
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. A positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists. usually, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	ZEW Survey - Current Situation	28.4	30.5	40.3
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey
09:00	GBP	low	CB Leading Indicator Index	-0.6%		-0.5%
The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in UK. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	low	Industrial Production s.a. (MoM)		-1.2%	-1.1%
The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)	0.1%	-1%	-2%
The Industrial Production is released by the Eurostat. It shows the volume of production of Industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. Usually, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the EUR, while low industrial production is seen as a negative sentiment (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment	-21.6	-15	5.4
The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. Generally speaking, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Euro with Germany ZEW Survey
09:40	USD	low	Fed's Lockhart speech
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the 14th president and chief executive officer Dennis P. Lockhart was born in1947, in California. He graduated from Stanford University and an M.A. in international economics and American foreign policy from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in 1971. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current US economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
12:30	USD	low	Import Price Index (YoY)	8.5%	7.1%	7.1%
The Import Price Index released by the US Department of Labor informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US.The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	CAD	low	New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)	-1%	0.5%	-3%
The New Motor Vehicle Sales released by the Statistics Canada measure motor vehicle sales in Canada. It is considered as an indicator for the overall economic climate. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	low	Import Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	0.2%	0.3%
The Import Price Index released by the US Department of Labor informs the changes in the price of imported products into the US.The higher the cost of imported goods, the stronger the effect they will have on inflation, redunding in a higher probability of a rate rise. Generally, a high reading should be taken as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Retail Sales (MoM)		0.7%	0.4%
The retail Sales released by the US Census Bureau measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%	0.7%
The Retail Sales ex Autos released by the US Census Bureau is a monthly data that shows all goods sold by retailers based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes except the automobile sector. The retail sales index is often taken as an indicator of consumer confidence. This report is the "advance" report, which can be revised fairly significantly after the final numbers are calculated. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the USD.
14:00	USD	average	Treasury's Geithner Speech
Timothy Geithner became the 75th Secretary of the US Department of Treasury in 2009. He gives a press conference as to how the Treasury Secretary observes the current US economy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. Normally, if he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).
14:00	USD	low	Business Inventories	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%
The business inventories released by the US Census Bureau measures the monthly percentage changes in inventories from manufacturers, retailers, and wholesalers. The sales figures do not move the markets as they do not reflect personal consumption
20:45	NZD	average	Retail Sales (QoQ)	2.4%	0.8%	2.2%
The retail Sales released by the Statistics New Zealand measures the total receipts of retail stores. Quarterly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
20:45	NZD	average	Retail Sales ex Autos (QoQ)	2.6%	0.5%	2.9%
The retail Sales released by the Statistics New Zealand measures the total receipts of retail stores except the automobile sector. Quarterly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
22:30	AUD	average	Westpac Consumer Confidence	2.4%		4.2%
The Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute captures the level of sentiment that individuals have in economic activity reflecting respondents' evaluations of their family finances over the past and coming year, expectations about the one-year and five-year economic conditions and views about current buying conditions for major household items. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

15 February 2012, Wednesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	low	New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM)	-2.7%		1.3%
The New Motor Vehicle Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures motor vehicle sales in Australia. It is considered as an indicator for consumer confidence. It is worth noting that motor vehicle sales are a small component of the overall Australian economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:30	AUD	low	New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY)	-3%		2.7%
The New Motor Vehicle Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics measures motor vehicle sales in Australia. It is considered as an indicator for consumer confidence. It is worth noting that motor vehicle sales are a small component of the overall Australian economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00	EUR	average	Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.3%	-0.2%
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00	EUR	average	Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)	1.5%	1.9%	1.5%
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00	EUR	average	Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)	2.6%	2%	1.5%
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by Germany. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the German economic activity and health. A high reading or a better than expected number has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	ILO Unemployment Rate (3M)	8.4%	8.5%	8.4%
The ILO Unemployment Rate released by the National Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. It is a leading indicator for the UK Economy. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the U.K. labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the U.K. economy. Generally, a decrease of the figure is positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is negative.
08:30	GBP	average	Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	2%		2%
The Average Earing Including Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Claimant Count Rate	5%	5.1%	5%
The Claimant Count Rate released by the National Statistics is a monthly measure of unemployment in the UK It indicates the health of the UK labor market. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the UK labor market, while it indicates economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures if the rate is down. Generally, a decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while an increase is seen as negative.
08:30	GBP	average	Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr)	1.9%	1.9%	2%
The Average Earing Excluding Bonus released by the National Statistics is a key short-term indicator of how levels of pay are changing within the UK economy. It can be seen as a measure of growth in "basic pay". Generally speaking, the positive earnings growth anticipates positive (or bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Claimant Count Change	1.9K	3.3K	6.9K
The Claimant Change released by the National Statistics presents the number of unemployment people in the UK. There is a tendency to influence the GBP volatility. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally, a high reading is seen as negative (or bearish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as positive (or bullish).
09:00	EUR	low	Trade Balance n.s.a.	€6.3B	€3.5B	€9.7B
The Trade Balance released by the Eurostat is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. Generally, if a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
09:00	CHF	average	ZEW Survey - Expectations	-50.1		-21.2
The ZEW Survey Expectations published by the Centre for European Economic Research presents business conditions, employment conditions and other elements affecting the day to day running of a business in Switzerland. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CHF, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY)	1.4%	0.7%	0.7%
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:00	EUR	average	Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ)	0.2%	-0.3%	-0.3%
The Gross Domestic Product released by the Eurostat is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the Eurozone. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the Eurozone economic activity and health. Usually, a rising trend has a positive effect on the EUR, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish ).
09:00	EUR	low	Trade Balance s.a.	€6.1B	€4.9B	€7.5B
The Trade Balance released by the Eurostat is a balance between exports and imports of total goods and services. A positive value shows trade surplus, while a negative value shows trade deficit. It is an event that generates some volatility for the EUR. Generally, if a steady demand in exchange for exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the EUR.
09:30	GBP	average	BoE's Governor King Speech
The BoE Chairman Mervyn King was born in 1948. He graduated from King’s College, Cambridge, and Harvard. He gives a press conference as to how the BoE observes the current UK economy and the value of the GBP. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend. If he shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a dovish is seen as negative (or bearish).
09:30	GBP	high	Bank of England Quarterly Inflation Report
The Bank of England quarterly publishes a report of the detailed economic analysis and inflation projections on which the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee bases its interest rate decisions, and presents an assessment of the prospects for UK inflation over the following two years. A high reading is seen as positive (or Bullish) for the GBP, whereas a low reading is seen as negative.
11:00	USD	low	MBA Mortgage Applications	7.5%		-1%
The MBA Mortgage Applications released by the Mortgage Bankers Association presents various mortgage applications. It is considered as a leading indicator of the U.S Housing Market. A Mortgage growth represents a healthy housing market that stimulates the overall US economy. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	low	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	13.48	15	19.53
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauges business conditions for New York manufacturers. Generally speaking, a positive result indicates bullish for US Dollar, while a negative result shows poor growth of US Dollar.
13:00	USD	low	Total Net TIC Flows	$42.9B		$87.1B
The total Net TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
13:00	USD	average	Net Long-Term TIC Flows	$61.3B	$62.3B	$17.9B
The Net Long-Term TIC Flows is released by the US Department of Treasury. TIC stands for Treasury International Capital. It shows in and out flows of financial resources in the United States. The TIC flows is one of the major events in the market, as it is seen by most participants as the Government resource for offsetting the current Trade Deficit. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is negative (or bearish).
13:15	USD	low	Capacity Utilization	78.6%	78.6%	78.5%
The Capacity Utilization released by the Federal Reserve Board is the percentage of the US production capacity which is actually used over the short-time period. It is indicative of overall growth and demand in the U.S. economy. A high capacity utilization stimulates inflationary pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
13:15	USD	average	Industrial Production (MoM)	1%	0.7%
The Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing. Up trend is regarded as inflationary which may anticipate interest rates to rise. If High industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the USD.
14:00	USD	low	NAHB Housing Market Index	25	26	29
NAHB Housing Market Index is released by the National Association of Home Builders. It presents home sales and expected home buildings in the future indicating housing market trend in the United States. The growth rate of the housing market affects the USD volatility. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
14:30	USD	low	EIA Crude Oil Stocks change	0.304M		-0.171M
EIA Crude Oil Stock is a measure of change in crude oil storage and it's released by the Energy Information Administration. This report indicates the oil demand and the price volatility. As the oil prices have an impact on worldwide economy, some volatility for the currencies, specially for the CAD is expected. We have to take into account that Canada is the world's fourteenth largest producer of oil so a strong oil demand appreciates, or is bullish for the CAD.
18:00	USD	high	FOMC Minutes
FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the US Dollar with the FOMC Minutes
20:30	NZD	low	Business NZ PMI	51.6		50.5
The Business NZ PMI released by the Business NZ presents business conditions in New Zealand. The Business PMI is an important indicator of the overall economic condition. A result that values above 50 signals appreciates (or is bullish) for the NZD, whereas a result that values below 50 is seen as negative (or bearish).

16 February 2012, Thursday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	GBP	average	Nationwide Consumer Confidence	38	40	47
The Nationwide Consumer Confidence captures the level of confidence that individuals have in current and future UK's economy. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. A high reading is also positive for the GBP, while a low reading is negative.
23:00	AUD	low	Consumer Inflation Expectation	2.8%		2.5%
The Consumer Inflation Expectation released by the Melbourne Institute presents the consumer expectations of future inflation during the next 12 months. The higher expectations, the stronger the effect they will have on a probability of a rate hike by the RBA. Therefore, a high reading should be taken as positive, or bullish, for the AUD, while a low expectations are seen as negative or bearish.
23:30	AUD	high	Unemployment Rate s.a.	5.2%	5.3%	5.1%
The Unemployment Rate release by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force. If the rate hikes, indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market. As a result, a rise leads to weaken the Australian economy. A decrease of the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:30	AUD	high	Employment Change s.a.	-35.6	10.9	46.3
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:00	EUR	average	ECB Monthly Report
The European Central Bank publishes a monthly report that contains a detailed analysis of the prevailing economic situation and the risks to price stability. It also provides articles on a wide range of topics related to the tasks of the ECB. A high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude which will be positive, or bullish, for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative, or bearish.
11:00	CAD	high	Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.1%
Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.
12:30	CAD	low	Manufacturing Shipments (MoM)	1.9%	1.5%	0.6%
The Manufacturing Shipment released by the Statistic Canada examines overall Shipments of Canada. It can be seen expected market demand. Generally speaking, a growing number of goods including unsold inventories indicates a fall in the market demand,which anticipates bearish for the CAD. Also, a decreasing shipment is seen as negative (or bearish). On the other hand, an increasing shipment is seen as positive (or bullish).
12:30	USD	average	Producer Price Index (YoY)	4.8%	4.1%	4.1%
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	low	Continuing Jobless Claims	3.526M	3.5M	3.444M
The Counting Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor measure the number of individuals who are unemployed and are currently receiving unemployment benefits. It presents the strength in the labor market. A rise in this indicator has negative implications for consumer spending which discourage economic growth. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as negative, or bearish for the USD, while a low reading is seen as positive, or bullish.
12:30	USD	low	Producer Price Index (MoM)	-0.1%	0.3%	0.1%
The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Building Permits (MoM)	0.679M	0.68M	0.676M
The Building Permits released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce shows the number of permits for new construction projects. It implies the movement of corporate investments (US economic development). It tends to cause some volatility to the USD. Normally, the more growing number of permits, the more positive (or bullish) for the USD.
12:30	CAD	low	Foreign investment in Canadian securities	$14.64B	$7.98B	$7.38B
The International Securities released by the Statistics Canada shows the movements of incoming and outcoming investments (money market, stocks and bonds) from Canada. It also indicates the climate of foreign investors into Canadian securities and the CAD itself. This event causes volatility in the CAD. Generally, an increasing number of investments is seen as positive prospect of the Canadian economy (or bullish sentiment for the CAD).
12:30	USD	average	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)	3%	2.6%	3%
The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	low	Producer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.3%	0.1%	0.4%
The Producer Price Index ex Food & energy released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	low	Initial Jobless Claims	361K	364K	351K
The Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance. In other words, it provides a measure of strength in the labor market. A larger than expected number indicates weakness in this market which influences the strength and direction of the US economy. Generally speaking, a decreasing number should be taken as positive or bullish for the USD.
12:30	CAD	low	Canadian Investment in Foreign Securities	-$2.94B		-$2.78B
The Canadian investment in foreign securities released by the Statistics Canada shows the movements of outcoming investments (money market, stocks and bonds) from Canada. It also indicates the climate of Canadian investors into foreign securities. This event causes volatility in the CAD. Normally, an increasing number of investments is seen as positive prospect of the Canadian economy (or bullish sentiment for the CAD).
13:00	USD	average	Fed's Bernanke Speech
The Fed Governor Ben Shalom Bernanke was born in 1953. He graduated from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in economics in 1979 from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2006 he became the Chairman of the Federal Reserve System. He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current US economy and the value of USD. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
14:00	USD	low	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey	7.3	8.5	10.2
The Philadelphia Fed Survey is a spread index of manufacturing conditions (movements of manufacturing) within the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. This survey, served as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is interrelated with the ISM manufacturing Index (Institute for Supply Management) and the index of industrial production. It is also used as a forecast of The ISM Index. Generally, an above-the-expectaitons reading is seen as positive for the USD.
16:15	USD	low	Fed's Fisher's speech
The office of president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Richard Fisher was born in 1949, Los Angeles. He graduated with honors from Harvard University in economics (1971) and received an M.B.A. from Stanford University (1975). He gives a press conference as to how the Fed observes the current U.S. economy and the value of USD. His comments may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. His hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas his dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish for the Dollar.
22:50	JPY	average	BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
The Bank of Japan publishes a study of economic movements in Japan after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and indicate a sign of new fiscal policy. Any changes in this report tend to affect the JPY volatility. Generally speaking, if the BoJ minutes show a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a dovish outlook is seen as negative (or bearish).

17 February 2012, Friday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	GBP	average	Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)	0.6%
The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
23:00	GBP	low	Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM)	-0.2%
The Nationwide Housing Prices shows the value of the houses prices in UK and indicate current movements in the housing market that is considered as a sensitive factor to the UK's economy. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00	EUR	average	Producer Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.3%	0.6%
The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
06:00	EUR	average	Producer Price Index (YoY)	4%	3.2%	3.4%
The Producer Price Index released by the Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland measures the average changes in prices in the German primary markets. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
07:55	EUR	average	Purchasing Manager Index Services	53.7
The Services PMI released by the Markit Economics interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction.
07:58	EUR	average	Purchasing Manager Index Services	50.4
The PMI service released by the Markit Economics is an indicator of the economic situation in the Euro Zone services sector. It captures an overview of the condition of sales and employment. It is worth noting that the European service sector does not influence, either positively or negatively, the GDP as much as the PMI manufacturing does. Any reading above 50 signals expansion, while a reading under 50 shows contraction. Usually a result above 50 is bullish for the EUR, whereas a result below 50 is seen as bearish.
08:00	EUR	low	Current Account n.s.a	€1.9B		€16.3
The Current Account released by the European Central Bank is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the Euro-Zone. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the Euro-Zone exceeds the capital reduction. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:00	EUR	low	Current Account s.a	-€0.9		€2
The Current Account released by European Central Bank is a net flow of current transactions, including goods, services, and interest payments into and out of the Euro-Zone. A current account surplus indicates that the flow of capital into the Euro-Zone exceeds the capital reduction. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY)	1.4%		1.9%
The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	low	Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM)	0.6%	-0.4%	1.2%
The Retail Sales ex-fuel released by the National Statistics is a measure of changes in sales of the British retail sector excluding fuel. It shows the performance of the retail sector in the short term. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. The changes are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Pound, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
08:30	GBP	average	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.5%	0.5%	2%
The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
08:30	GBP	low	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.6%	-0.4%	0.9%
The retail Sales released by the National Statistics measures the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly percent changes reflect the rate of changes of such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive, or bullish for the GBP, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.
09:00	EUR	low	Construction Output s.a (MoM)	0.8%
The report released by the Eurostat is the output of the construction industry, in both the private and public sectors. It shows the strength of the construction industry, which, at the same time, hints at the investments made in this sector of the economy. Usually, a high reading is positive for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
09:00	EUR	low	Construction Output w.d.a (YoY)	0.2%
The report released by the Eurostat is the output of the construction industry, in both the private and public sectors. It shows the strength of the construction industry, which, at the same time, hints at the investments made in this sector of the economy. Usually, a high reading is positive for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.
09:00	EUR	low	Consumer Price Index - Harmonized (YoY)	2.2%		2.1%
The Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics Service is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of the Euro is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
11:00	CAD	average	Consumer Price Index (MoM)	-0.6%	0.3%	0.4%
The Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of CAD is dragged down by inflation. The Bank of Canada aims at an inflation range (1%-3%). Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.
11:00	CAD	high	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	2.3%	2.3%	2.5%
The Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics Canada is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of CAD is dragged down by inflation. The Bank of Canada aims at an inflation range (1%-3%). Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as anticipatory of a rate hike and is positive (or bullish) for the CAD.
11:00	CAD	average	Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM)	-0.5%	0.1%	0.2%
The Consumer Price Index Core is released by the Bank of Canada. “Core” CPI excludes fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products. These volatile core 8 are considered as the key indicator for inflation in Canada. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates a hawkish attitude by the BoC, and that is said to be positive (or bullish) for the CAD.
12:30	USD	high	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3%	2.8%	2.9%
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Housing Starts (MoM)	0.689M	0.67M	0.699M
The Housing Starts released by the US Census Bureau, at the Department of Commerce is an indicator that tracks how many new single-family homes or buildings were constructed. For the survey each house and each single apartment are counted as one housing start. The figures include all private and publicly owned units. It indicates movements of the US housing market. Generally, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	CAD	average	Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.7%	0.6%	0.7%
The Leading Indicators released by the Statistics Canada measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in Canada. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CAD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
12:30	USD	average	Consumer Price Index (MoM)		0.3%	0.2%
The Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistcs is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of USD is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
12:30	USD	high	Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY)	2.2%		2.1%
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Ex Food & Energy released by the US Department of Labor Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. Those volatile products such as food and energy are excluded in order to capture an accurate calculation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish).
14:00	USD	average	Leading Indicators (MoM)	0.5%	0.5%	0.4%
The Leading Indicators released by the Conference Board measures future trends of the overall economic activity including employment, average manufacturing workweek, initial claims, permits for new housing construction, stock prices and yield curve. It is considered as a measure for economic stability in United States. This event generates some volatility for the USD. Normally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish).

19 February 2012, Sunday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
07:15	CHF	average	Employment Level (QoQ)	2.77M
The Employment Level released by the Swiss Statistics shows the number of employed workers. If the level is up, it indicates economic expansion within the Swiss lobar market, while a declining level suggests a lack of economic expansion. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the CHF, while a low reading is seen as negative (bearish).
20:45	NZD	low	Producer Price Index - Input (QoQ)	0.6%	0.4%	0.5%
The Producer Price Index Input released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measurement of the rate of inflation experienced by producers. It captures changes in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by the producers in New Zealand. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
20:45	NZD	low	Producer Price Index - Output (QoQ)	0.2%	0.5%	0.1%
The Producer Price Index Out released by the Statistics New Zealand is a measurement of the price changes of goods produced by the producers in New Zealand. Generally speaking, a price hike generates higher retail prices for consumers. Thus, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
22:50	JPY	low	Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance	-¥568.	-¥847.	-¥612.
The Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance is released by the Ministry of Finance and it's a seasonal measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports. A high reading is positive for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish). Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Yen with Japan Trade Balance
22:50	JPY	average	Merchandise Trade Balance Total	-¥205.	-¥1456	-¥1475
The Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance is a measure of balance amount between import and export. A positive value shows a trade surplus while a negative value shows a trade deficit. Japan is so much dependant on exports that the Japanese economy heavily relies on a trade surplus. Therefore, any variation in the figures influences the domestic economy. If a steady demand in exchange for Japanese exports is seen, that would turn into a positive. Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Yen with Japan Trade Balance