Forex calendar
Monday, 08 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:50 | JPY | low | Bank Lending y/y | -1.0% | -1.5% | |
| Measures: Change in the total value of outstanding bank loans issued to consumers and businesses; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 Why Traders Care: Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money; | ||||||
| 02:50 | JPY | low | Current Account | 1.30T | 1.27T | 1.10T |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: The goods portion has no impact because it's a duplicate of the Trade Balance data released about 20 days earlier; Why Traders Care: It's directly linked to currency demand - a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country; Also Called: Adjusted Current Account; | ||||||
| 02:50 | JPY | low | M2 Money Stock y/y | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% |
| Measures: Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: Much of this data is released in the Monetary Base report about a week earlier; Why Traders Care: It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation; | ||||||
| 08:00 | JPY | low | Economy Watchers Sentiment | 35.4 | 35.9 | 38.8 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed workers who directly observe consumer spending by virtue of their job; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 9 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 workers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current economic conditions; Also Called: Eco Watchers Current Index; | ||||||
| 09:45 | CHF | low | Unemployment Rate | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate; | ||||||
| 11:15 | CHF | high | Retail Sales y/y | -0.1% | 1.3% | 4.7% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2010; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Real Retail Sales; | ||||||
| 12:30 | EUR | low | Sentix Investor Confidence | -3.7 | -2.3 | -8.2 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first or second Monday of the current month; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. Source first released in Mar 2006; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone; | ||||||
| 16:15 | CAD | high | Housing Starts | 176K | 180K | 186K |
| Measures: Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 9 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Market impact tends to vary and is occasionally quite hefty; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder; Acro Expand: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC); | ||||||
| 21:00 | CAD | medium | Gov Council Member Duguay Speaks | |||
| ??” | ||||||
Tuesday, 09 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | EUR | medium | ECB President Trichet Speaks | |||
| Speaker: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet; Description: Due to participate in a panel discussion at the Reserve Bank of Australia symposium, in Sydney; FF Notes: ECB President Nov 2003 - Nov 2011. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the ECB, which controls short term inter 3e8 est rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB); | ||||||
| 03:01 | GBP | medium | BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y | 4.2% | -0.7% | |
| Measures: Change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: Leads the government-released retail data by about 10 days, but has a narrower focus as it only includes retailers who belong to the BRC; Also Called: Like-for-like Retail Sales; Acro Expand: British Retail Consortium (BRC); | ||||||
| 03:01 | GBP | medium | RICS House Price Balance | 30% | 28% | 32% |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed property surveyors; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: Data represents the percentage of surveyors reporting a price increase in their designated area. Above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices, below indicates more reported a fall; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of housing inflation because surveyors have access to the most recent price data by virtue of their job; Acro Expand: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS); | ||||||
| 09:00 | JPY | low | Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y | 63.4% | 192.0% | |
| Measures: Change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance; Acro Expand: Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA); | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | low | German Final CPI m/m | -0.6% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of CPI released about 15 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | low | German Trade Balance | 17.0B | 14.8B | 16.7B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 8, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency deman 3e8 d are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Foreign Trade; | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | medium | Trade Balance | -6.8B | -6.6B | -7.3B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Creates significant impact on occasion but generally produces a mild reaction. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Visible Trade Balance; | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | low | IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism | 48.8 | 49.3 | 46.8 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect 3e8 : Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly; Next Release: Mar 16, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Derived Via: Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies; Also Called: IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence; Acro Expand: Investor's Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | low | Wholesale Inventories m/m | 1.6% | 0.5% | -0.8% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods when they have depleted inventories; | ||||||
Wednesday, 10 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:30 | AUD | medium | Westpac Consumer Sentiment | 5.6% | -2.6% | |
| Measures: Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment, and climate for major purchases; Also Called: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment; | ||||||
| 02:50 | JPY | medium | Core Machinery Orders m/m | -11.3% | 8.1% | 20.1% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders; Also Called: Machine Orders; | ||||||
| 02:50 | JPY | low | CGPI y/y | -3.9% | -2.3% | -2.1% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by corporations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Also Called: Domestic CGPI, Producer Prices; Acro Expand: Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI); | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Home Loans m/m | -6.1% | -4.8% | -5.5% |
| ??” | ||||||
| 10:45 | EUR | medium | French Industrial Production m/m | 0.6% | 0.6% | -0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; | ||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | low | Italian Industrial Production m/m | 0.4% | 0.0% | -0.7% |
| Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | high | Manufacturing Production m/m | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.9% |
| Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: Manufacturing makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production and tends to dominate the market impact; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; Also Called: Factory production; | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | low | Industrial Production m/m | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 9, 2010 FF Notes: Mines and utilities make up around 20% of total production, so this data tends to be overshadowed by Manufacturing Production which makes up the other 80%; | ||||||
| 13:30 | GBP | high | BOE Gov King Speaks | |||
| Speaker: BOE Governor Mervyn King; Description: Due to hold a press conference, along with other MPC members, about the Inflation Report, in London; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: May 12, 2010 FF Notes: BOE Governor Jul 2003 - Jun 2013. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used t 3e8 o drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE); | ||||||
| 13:30 | GBP | high | BOE Inflation Report | |||
| Frequency: Released quarterly; Next Release: May 12, 2010 FF Notes: This report includes the BOE's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years. The BOE Governor holds a press conference to discuss the report's contents upon release; Why Traders Care: Acro Expand | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | high | Trade Balance | -0.2B | -0.1B | -0.2B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. About 65% of Canadian exports are purchased by the US; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: International Merchandise Trade; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Trade Balance | -36.4B | -35.8B | -40.2B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: International Trade; | ||||||
| 17:30 | USD | low | FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks | |||
| Speaker: Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo; Description: Due to testify on systemic risk before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, in Washington DC; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: FOMC voting member Jan 2009 - Jan 2022; Why Traders Care: Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | high | Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies | |||
| Speaker: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke; Description: Due to testify on the unwinding of emergency Federal Reserve liquidity programs and implications for economic recovery before the House Financial Services Committee, in Washington DC; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Reserve (Fed); | ||||||
| 18:30 | USD | medium | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.3M | 1.4M | 2.4M |
| Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA); | ||||||
| 22:00 | USD | medium | Federal Budget Balance | -91.9B | -44.2B | -42.6B |
| Measures: Difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the eighth business day after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit; Also Called: Monthly Treasury Statement, Treasury Budget; | ||||||
| 22:00 | USD | medium | Federal Budget Balance | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Measures the unit sales for new vehicles. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency because demand for vehicles, as with other expensive durable goods, has historically been a leading indicator of trends in overall consumer spending. Vehicle sales accounting for roughly 25% of total retail sales. | ||||||
Thursday, 11 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | NZD | low | Business NZ Manufacturing Index | 53.0 | 52.0 | |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: This report is often released earlier than scheduled. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Manufacturing Index; | ||||||
| 00:45 | NZD | low | FPI m/m | -0.3% | 2.1% | |
| Measures: Change in the price of food and food services purchased by households; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: Al 2137 though food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis; Acro Expand: Food Price Index (FPI); | ||||||
| 03:00 | AUD | medium | MI Inflation Expectations | 3.5% | 3.2% | |
| Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise; Also Called: Consumer Inflation Expectations; Acro Expand: Melbourne Institute (MI); | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Employment Change | 37.5K | 15.1K | 52.7K |
| ??” | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Unemployment Rate | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.3% |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate; | ||||||
| 05:00 | CNY | medium | CPI y/y | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the sampling a done year earlier; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 05:00 | CNY | medium | PPI y/y | 1.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers pay and charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI); | ||||||
| 05:00 | CNY | medium | CPI y/y | 1.9% | 2.2% 3e8 | |
| Measures the difference in value between total imports and total exports of goods. A positive reading means that more goods were exported than imported over the previous month. The Trade Balance has a sizable impact on GDP and at extremes can directly influence the country's currency value. | ||||||
| 05:07 | CNY | medium | New Loans | 380B | 1390B | |
| Measures: Value of new yuan-denominated loans issued to consumers and businesses during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Source does not have a reliable release schedule - this event will be listed with a date range or as 'Tentative' until the data is released; Why Traders Care: Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money; Also Called: New Yuan Loans; | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | low | German WPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when wholesalers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Wholesale Price Index (WPI); | ||||||
| 11:15 | CHF | medium | CPI m/m | -0.2% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 4 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 4, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest major inflation data released by any country, coming just days after the month ends. The impact tends to be significant but varies from month to month due to volatility in the data set; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 12:30 | EUR | medium | ECB Monthly Bulletin | |||
| Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, 7 days after the Minimum Bid Rate release; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest r 3e8 ate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB); | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | medium | NHPI m/m | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Measures: Change in the selling price of new homes; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Acro Expand: New Housing Price Index (NHPI); | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Core Retail Sales m/m | -0.2% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Retail Sales m/m | -0.1% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Unemployment Claims | 483K | 460K | 440K |
| Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims; | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | medium | Business Inventories m/m | 0.5% | 0.3% | -0.2% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods when they have depleted inventories; | ||||||
| 18:30 | USD | low | Natural Gas Storage | -115B | -176B | -191B |
| Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Feb 18, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA); | ||||||
Friday, 12 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:10 | GBP | high | Nationwide HPI m/m | 1.4% | 0.4% | -1.0% |
| — | ||||||
| 00:45 | NZD | high | Retail Sales m/m | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; | ||||||
| 00:45 | NZD | medium | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.8% | 0.3% | -1.8% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos; | ||||||
| 00:45 | NZD | medium | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.8% | 0.3% | |
| — | ||||||
| 08:00 | JPY | low | Household Confidence | 37.6 | 38.2 | 39.0 |
| Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed households, excluding single-person homes; Usua 3e8 l Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 15, 2010 FF Notes: This is among the few non-seasonally adjusted numbers reported on the calendar, as it's the calculation most commonly reported; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 5,000 households which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including overall livelihood, income growth, employment, and climate for major purchases; Also Called: Consumer Confidence Households; | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | high | German Prelim GDP q/q | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 13, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of GDP released about 10 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Also Called: First Release GDP, Preliminary GDP; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 10:45 | EUR | medium | French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q | -0.5% | -0.2% | -0.4% |
| Measures: Change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 14, 2010 FF Notes: Due to the double revision schedule the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this indicator released about a month apart - Preliminary and Final. Both tend to have a muted impact because there are several earlier indicators related to Eurozone labor conditions; Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Non-Farm Employment, Provisional Employment; | ||||||
| 10:45 | EUR | low | French Prelim GDP q/q | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 12, 2010 FF Notes: Data is prone to early leaks by news agencies. Leaks will be reported on the calendar but will be retracted if deemed incorrect. There are 2 versions of GDP released about 45 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not included for lack of significance; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | low | Italian Prelim GDP q/q | 0.6% | 0.1% | -0.2% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 45 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 17, 2010 FF Notes: Data is prone to early leaks by news agencies. Leaks will be reported on the calendar but will be retracted if deemed incorrect. There are 2 versions of GDP released about 25 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not included for lack of significance; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic 3e8 activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Also Called: Preliminary GDP Estimate; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | medium | Industrial Production m/m | 1.4% | 0.3% | -1.7% |
| Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a relatively mild impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone's economy, release earlier production data; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated 3e8 with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; | ||||||
| 13:00 | GBP | low | CB Leading Index m/m | 0.9% | 0.4% | |
| Measures: Change in the level of a composite index based on 7 economic indicators; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 16, 2010 FF Notes: This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously; Derived Via: Combined reading of 7 economic indicators related to production, new orders, consumer confidence, stock prices, and interest rate spreads; Also Called: Leading Indicators; Acro Expand: The Conference Board (CB); | ||||||
| 17:55 | USD | high | Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment | 74.4 | 74.8 | 73.7 |
| Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions; Also Called: Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM); | ||||||
| 17:55 | USD | low | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | 2.8% | 2.7% | |
| Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM); | ||||||
| 17:55 | USD | low | Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations | |||
| Dallas Federal Reserve President and FOMC voting member Richard Fisher will speak about inflation and debt at the Commonwealth Club of California, in San Francisco. Audience questions expected. FOMC voting members are responsible for setting the nation's short term interest rate, so traders scrutinize their speeches closely for clues regarding future monetary policy. | ||||||
Saturday, 13 February 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06:10 | GBP | high | Revised GDP q/q | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual 3e8 Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 55 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 25, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart - Preliminary, Revised, and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gau 3e8 ge of the economy's health; Also Called: GDP Second Estimate; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 06:10 | GBP | low | Index of Services 3m/3m | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% |
| Measures: Change in the total GVA of the private and government services sectors; Frequency: Released monthly, about 55 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: GVA is the difference between the value of a service provided and the value of the goods and services used to provide the service; Acro Expand: Gross Value Added (GVA); | ||||||
| 07:30 | CAD | medium | BOC Gov Carney Speaks | |||
FF Alert  : Notes of panel remarks due to be released 15 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed;Speaker: BOC Governor Mark Carney; Description: Due to participate in a panel discussion at the Reserve Bank of India's International Research Conference, in Mumbai; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: BOC Governor Feb 2008 - Feb 2015. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC); | ||||||
