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Economic calendar

8 March 2010, Monday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
04:00	JPY	low	Economy Watchers Sentiment	38.8	40.2	42.1
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed workers who directly observe consumer spending by virtue of their job; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 9 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 workers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current economic conditions; Also Called: Eco Watchers Current Index;
05:45	CHF	low	Unemployment Rate	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate;
07:15	CHF	high	Retail Sales y/y	4.4%	2.4%	4.4%
Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: Source changed series calculation formula as of Jan 2010; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Real Retail Sales;
08:30	EUR	low	Sentix Investor Confidence	-8.2	-8.0	-7.5
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first or second Monday of the current month; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. Source first released in Mar 2006; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - investors and analysts are highly informed by virtue of their job, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone;
10:00	EUR	average	German Industrial Production m/m	-1.0%	1.1%	0.6%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; Also Called: Industrial Output;
12:00	GBP	average	MPC Member Barker Speaks
Speaker: External BOE MPC Member Kate Barker; Description: Due to speak at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research, in London; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: MPC voting member June 2001 - May 2010; Why Traders Care: Acro Expand
12:15	CAD	high	Housing Starts	185K	188K	197K
Measures: Annualized number of new residential buildings that began construction during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 9 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 FF Notes: While this is monthly data, it's reported in an annualized format (monthly figure x12). Market impact tends to vary and is occasionally quite hefty; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because building construction produces a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various construction services are purchased by the builder; Acro Expand: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC);

9 March 2010, Tuesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:01	GBP	average	BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y	-0.7%		2.2%
Measures: Change in the value of same-store sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Leads the government-released retail data by about 10 days, but has a narrower focus as it only includes retailers who belong to the BRC; Also Called: Like-for-like Retail Sales; Acro Expand: British Retail Consortium (BRC);
23:01	GBP	average	RICS House Price Balance	31%	34%	17%
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed property surveyors; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Data represents the percentage of surveyors reporting a price increase in their designated area. Above 0.0% indicates more surveyors reported a rise in prices, below indicates more reported a fall; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of housing inflation because surveyors have access to the most recent price data by virtue of their job; Acro Expand: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS);
23:30	AUD	average	ANZ Job Advertisements m/m	-8.1%		19.1%
Measures: Change in the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and websites covering the capital cities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 7 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 6, 2010 FF Notes: This data tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the government employment data rather than after; Acro Expand: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ);
23:30	AUD	average	NAB Business Confidence	15		19
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed businesses, excluding the farming industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: Above 0 indicates improving conditions, below indicates worsening conditions. There's a quarterly and monthly version of this survey - although the monthly survey is more timely, the quarterly version tends to have more impact due to a larger sample size and additional questions regarding expectations; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and changes in their sentiment can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Derived Via: Survey of about 350 businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current business conditions; Acro Expand: National Australia Bank (NAB);
05:00	JPY	low	Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y	189.4%		217.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. The Final is not reported for lack of significance; Acro Expand: Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA);
06:45	EUR	low	French Trade Balance	-4.2B	-3.9B	-3.7B
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Foreign Trade;
07:15	CHF	average	CPI m/m	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Frequency: Released monthly, about 5 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising price 3e8 s lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
08:30	GBP	average	Trade Balance	-7.0B	-6.9B	-8.0B
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Creates significant impact on occasion but generally produces a mild reaction. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Visible Trade Balance;
14:00	USD	low	IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism	46.8	48.9	45.4
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates optimism, 27ce below indicates pessimism; Derived Via: Survey of about 900 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, and confidence in federal economic policies; Also Called: IBD/TIPP Consumer Confidence; Acro Expand: Investor's Business Daily (IBD), TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP);
20:45	NZD	low	Overseas Trade Index q/q	-1.6%	1.2%	5.7%
Measures: Change in the price of internationally traded goods and services; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 70 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: Calculates the volume of imports that can be purchased with an equal volume of exports; Also Called: Terms of Trade Index;
21:00	AUD	average	RBA Assist Gov Lowe Speaks
Speaker: RBA Assistant Governor (Financial System) Dr. Philip Lowe; Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Some Challenges for the Future" at the Urban Development Institute of Australia National Congress 2010, in Sydney; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: Mar 25, 2010 Why Traders Care: He's responsible for advising Reserve Bank Board members - who decide where to set the nation's key interest rates - on matters relating to the financial system, and his public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future policy shifts; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA);
22:30	AUD	average	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	-2.6%		0.2%
Measures: Change in the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 1,200 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of past and future economic conditions, employment, and climate for major purchases; Also Called: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment;
22:50	JPY	average	Core Machinery Orders m/m	20.1%	-3.8%	-3.7%
Measures: Change in the total value of new private-sector purchase orders placed with manufacturers for machines, excluding ships and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders; Also Called: Machine Orders;
22:50	JPY	low	CGPI y/y	-2.1%	-1.4%	-1.5%
Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by corporations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Also Called: Domestic CGPI, Producer Prices;

10 March 2010, Wednesday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:30	AUD	high	Home Loans m/m	-5.1%	2.1%	-7.9%
Measures: Change in the number of new loans granted for owner occupied homes; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of demand in the housing market - most homes are financed, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market; Also Called: Dwelling Finance Commitments;
06:00	EUR	low	German Final CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
06:00	-	common/calendar/impacts/	German Trade Balance
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: This is the seasonally adjusted data (as most FF numbers are), not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted number reported by some news agencies. A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency deman 3e8 d are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: Foreign Trade;
06:45	EUR	average	French Industrial Production m/m	-0.2%	0.3%	1.6%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
08:00	EUR	low	Italian Industrial Production m/m	-0.2%	0.7%	2.6%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
08:30	GBP	high	Manufacturing Production m/m	0.9%	0.3%	-0.9%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Manufacturing makes up around 80% of total Industrial Production and tends to dominate the market impact; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings; Also Called: Factory production;
08:30	GBP	low	Industrial Production m/m	0.5%	0.2%	-0.4%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: Mines and utilities make up around 20% of total production, so this data tends to be overshadowed by Manufacturing Production which makes up the other 80%;
12:30	EUR	average	Buba President Weber Speaks
Speaker: Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber; Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "Making the financial system more resilient - the role of capital requirements", in Dublin; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 FF Notes: Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council Apr 2004 - Apr 2012. He's believed to be one of the most influential members of the council; Why Traders Care: ECB Governing Council members vote on where to set the Eurozone's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Deutsche Bundesbank (Buba), European Central Bank (ECB);
14:00	USD	low	Wholesale Inventories m/m	-1.0%	0.2%	-0.2%
Measures: Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by wholesalers; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods when they have depleted inventories;
14:00	GBP	average		0.6%		0.3%
—
14:30	USD	average	Crude Oil Inventories	4.1M	1.9M	1.4M
Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 17, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
14:30	USD	average		4.1M	1.9M
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the rate of inflation experienced by manufacturers. The reading represents the monthly change in the average price of a fixed basket of goods and services purchased by manufacturers. Higher inflation generally leads to higher interest rates, which tend to strengthen the country's currency.
16:30	EUR	low	Buba President Weber Speaks
Speaker: Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber; Description: Due to deliver a speech titled "The reform of financial supervision and regulation in Europe", in Dublin; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council Apr 2004 - Apr 2012. He's believed to be one of the most influential members of the council; Why Traders Care: ECB Governing Council members vote on where to set the Eurozone's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Deutsche Bundesbank (Buba), European Central Bank (ECB);
17:00	EUR	average	ECB President Trichet Speaks
Speaker: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet; Description: Due to speak at the inauguration ceremony of "The Language of Money" exhibition, in Frankfurt; Next Release: Mar 12, 2010 FF Notes: ECB President Nov 2003 - Nov 2011. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB);
18:00	USD	average	Federal Budget Balance	-42.6B	-207.5B
—
19:00	NZD	average	RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: In this report the RBNZ is mandated to include details on how they will achieve their inflation targets, how they propose to formulate and 3e8 implement monetary policy during the next five years, and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last statement's release; Why Traders Care: It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy and influence their interest rate decisions; Acro Expand: Related Items
19:00	NZD	high	RBNZ Press Conference			3e8
Speaker: RBNZ Governor; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled quarterly, at every other Official Cash Rate announcement; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: The press conference is about 30 minutes long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the RBNZ website with a slight delay from real-time; Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about mon 3e8 etary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate decision, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy; Also Called: Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ);
19:00	NZD	high	Official Cash Rate	2.50%	2.50%
Measures: Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Apr 29, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the Interest Rate Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: The RBNZ Governor decides where to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers; Also Called: Interest Rates, OCR; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), Official Cash Rate (OCR);
19:00	NZD	high	RBNZ Rate Statement
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Apr 29, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the RBNZ uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Policy Assessment, Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ);
20:30	NZD	low	Business NZ Manufacturing Index	52.0
Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 13 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: This report is often released earlier than scheduled. Above 50.0 indicates expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Manufacturing Index;
20:45	NZD	low	FPI m/m
Measures: Change in the price of food and food services purchased by households; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 20, 2010 Why Traders Care: Although food is among the most volatile consumer price components, this indicator garners some attention because New Zealand's major inflation data is released on a quarterly basis; Acro Expand: Food Price Index (FPI);
22:50	JPY	low	Final GDP Price Index y/y	-3.0%	-2.9%
Measures: Change in the price of all goods and services included in GDP; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 70 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. Also Called: GDP Deflator; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);
22:50	JPY	average	Final GDP q/q	1.1%	1.0%
Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 70 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of GDP released about a month apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP);

11 March 2010, Thursday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
23:00	AUD	average	MI Inflation Expectations	3.2%
—
23:30	AUD	low	RBA Bulletin
FF Alert : Source changed release frequency from monthly to quarterly as of this release; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released Quarterly; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 FF Notes: Source changed release frequency from monthly to quarterly as of Jan 2010. Tends to have a mild impact since much of the information is released previously; Why Traders Care: It contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic 3e8 conditions from the bank's viewpoint; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA);
23:30	AUD	high	Employment Change	52.7K	15.2K
—
23:30	AUD	high	Unemployment Rate	5.3%	5.3%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 Also Called: Jobless Rate;
01:00	-	average	NBS Press Conference
Speaker: NBS Spokesperson; Frequency: Scheduled monthly, excluding February; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: The press conference has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read which announces the key economic numbers, then the conference is briefly open to press questions. The questions sometimes lead to unscripted answers that can have a significant market impact. Source changed frequency from quarterly to monthly as of Aug 2009; Acro Expand: National Bureau of Statistics (NBS);
01:00	-	low	Retail Sales y/y	17.5%	18.3%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending;
01:00	-	average	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y	30.5%	26.5%
Measures: Change in the total spending on urban capital investments such as factories, roads, power grids, and property; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: Data represents the year-to-date investment compared to the same period a year earlier; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - changes in private and public investment levels can be an early signal of future economic activity such as hiring, spending, and earnings;
01:00	-	average	Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y	30.5%	26.9%
Measures the difference in value between total imports and total exports of goods, services, income, and current transfers. It's essentially a statement of the country's trade with other nations over a period of time.
01:00	-	average	PPI y/y	4.3%	5.2%
Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased and sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers pay and charge more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI);
01:00	-	high	Industrial Production y/y	18.5%	19.5%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Frequency: Released monthly, excluding February, about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 FF Notes: Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle; Also Called: Industrial Output;
01:00	-	average	CPI y/y	1. 3e8 5	2.5%
Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually about 11 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 12, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to respond by raising interest rates; Derived Via: The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the sampling a done year earlier; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI);
06:45	EUR	low	French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q	-0.4%	-0.4%
Measures: Change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 75 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 14, 2010 Also Called: Non-Farm Employment, Revised Employment;
06:45	EUR	low	French Gov Budget Balance	-138.0B
Measures: Difference in value between the central government's income and spending for the year-to-date; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates a budget surplus, a negative number indicates a deficit. Due to the year-to-date format, the data released in Feb covers the entire preceding year's budget, while the Mar releases only covers the first month of the current year; Also Called: General Budget Outcome;
08:00	EUR	average	ECB Monthly Bulletin
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, 7 days after the Minimum Bid Rate release; Next Release: Apr 15, 2010 Why Traders Care: It reveals the statistical data that the ECB Governing Board evaluated when making the latest interest rate decision, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB);
08:30	GBP	average	Consumer Inflation Expectations	2.4%
Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 20 days after the survey is conducted; Next Release: Jun 10, 2010 Why Trad 2c56 ers Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise; Derived Via: Survey of about 2,000 consumers, conducted by GfK, which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future; Also Called: BOE/GfK Inflation Attitudes Survey, Median Inflation Expectations; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE);
12:00	CHF	high	SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled quarterly; Next Release: Jun 17, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary tool the SNB Governing Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their deci 3e8 sion on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it projects the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future rate decisions; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement, SNB Statement; Acro Expand: Swiss National Bank (SNB);
12:00	CHF	high	Libor Rate	0.25%	0.25%
Measures: London interest rate for 3-month Swiss franc deposits; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled quarterly; Next Release: Jun 17, 2010 FF Notes: The SNB u 2a49 sually announces a 1% target range for Libor, and the midpoint is considered the target rate unless specifically stated otherwise. The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the Monetary Policy Assessment which is focused on the future. Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: SNB Governing Board members come to a consensus on where to set the target range for the rate; Also Called: Interest Rates, Libor, 3-month Rate; Acro Expand: London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor), Swiss National Bank (SNB);
12:30	USD	high	Unemployment Claims	469K	456K
Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 18, 2010 FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims;
12:30	CAD	high	Trade Balance	-0.2B	0.3B
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods were exported than imported. About 65% of Canadian exports are purchased by the US; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: International Merchandise Trade;
12:30	CAD	common/calendar/impacts/	Capacity Utilization Rate	67.5%	70. 3e8
Measures: Percentage of available resources being utilized by manufacturers, builders, mines, oil extractors, and utilities; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 75 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 1 3e8 1, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when producers are nearing full capacity they respond by raising prices, and the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Also Called: Industrial Capacity Utilization Rate;
12:30	USD	high	Trade Balance	-40.2B	-40.9B
Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: International Trade;
12:30	CAD	average	NHPI m/m	0.4%	0.5%
Measures: Change in the selling price of new homes; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 40 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the housing industry's health because rising house prices attract investors and spur industry activity; Acro Expand: New Housing Price Index (NHPI);
14:30	USD	low	Natural Gas Storage	-116B	-147B
Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 18, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA);
18:00	USD	low	FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
—
18:05	CAD	average	BOC Gov Carney Speaks
FF Alert : Text of the speech due to be released 15 minutes earlier than the speaking time listed; Speaker: BOC Governor Mark Carney; Description: Due to speak at Carleton University, in Ottawa; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Next Release: Mar 24, 2010 FF Notes: BOC Governor Feb 2008 - Feb 2015. Volatility is sometimes experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC);
20:45	NZD	average	Core Retail Sales m/m	-1.8%	0.7%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos;
20:45	NZD	high	Retail Sales m/m	0.0%	0.4%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;

12 March 2010, Friday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
03:30	JPY	low	Revised Industrial Production m/m	2.5%	2.5%
—
06:00	EUR	low	German WPI m/m	1.3%	0.6%
Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by wholesalers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 12 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 13, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when wholesalers charge more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Wholesale Price Index (WPI);
09:00	GBP	average	MPC Member Dale Speaks
Speaker: BOE Chief Economist Spencer Dale; Description: Due to speak at Trinity College, in Cambridge; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: MPC voting member Jul 2008 - Jun 2011; Why Traders Care: BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC);
09:00	EUR	average	Industrial Production m/m	-1.6%	0.8%
Measures: Change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a relatively mild impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone's economy, release earlier production data; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - production reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle and is correlated with consumer conditions such as employment levels and earnings;
09:15	EUR	average	Buba President Weber Speaks
Speaker: Deutsche Bundesbank President Axel Weber; Description: Due to participate in a panel discussion, in Bonn; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: Deutsche Bundesbank President and voting member of the ECB Governing Council Apr 2004 - Apr 2012. He's believed to be one of the most influential members of the council; Why Traders Care: ECB Governing Council members vote on where to set the Eurozone's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Deutsche Bundesbank (Buba), European Central Bank (ECB);
11:00	CAD	high	Unemployment Rate	8.3%	8.3%
Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate;
11:00	CAD	high	Employment Change	43.0K	17.5K
Measures: Change in the number of employed people during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 8 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 FF Notes: This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts; Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;
12:30	USD	high	Retail Sales m/m	0.5%	-0.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest and broadest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity;
12:30	USD	high	Core Retail Sales m/m	0.6%	0.1%
Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 14 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: Automobile sales account for about 20% of Retail Sales, but they tend to be very volatile and distort the underlying trend. The Core data is therefore thought to be a better gauge of spending trends; Also Called: Retail Sales Ex Autos;
13:55	USD	high	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	73.6	74.0
Measures: Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Apr 16, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions; Also Called: Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM);
13:55	USD	low	Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
Measures: Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months; Frequency: Released monthly, around the middle of the current month; Next Release: Apr 16, 2010 Why Traders Care: Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise; Derived Via: Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future; Acro Expand: University of Michigan (UoM);
14:00	USD	average	Business Inventories m/m	-0.2%	0.2%
Measures: Change in the total value of goods held in inventory by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers; Usual Effect 3e8 : Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 45 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a signal of future business spending because companies are more likely to purchase goods when they have depleted inventories;
16:00	USD	average	Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
Speaker: US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner; Description: Due to speak at the Annual Conference of Export Import Bank, in Washington DC. FF Notes: US Treasury Secretary Jan 2009 - Jan 2013. He speaks frequently on a broad range of subjects - only speeches that might have direct market impact are listed on the calendar; Why Traders Care: It's the Treasury Secretary's job to communicate t 3e8 he US President's economic policies, and his speeches are often used to signal policy shifts to the public and to foreign governments;
19:45	EUR	average	ECB President Trichet Speaks
Speaker: ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet; Description: Due to speak at the Institute of Economic Policy Research, in Stanford; FF Notes: ECB President Nov 2003 - Nov 2011. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more i 3e8 nfluence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB);

14 March 2010, Sunday

	Currency	Value	Event	Prev.	Forecast	Real
06:00	CAD	common/calendar/impacts/	Daylight Saving Time Shift
Description: Canada enters DST and clocks are moved forward by 1 hour; Frequency: Twice per year; Next Release: Nov 7, 2010 FF Notes: If you live in Canada you'll need to adjust your DST setting to ensure the calendar is in sync with your local time. If you live outside Canada no adjustment is needed, but you'll notice a 1 hour difference in the time Canadian calendar events occur; Acro Expand: Daylight Saving Time (DST);
06:00	-	common/calendar/impacts/	Daylight Saving Time Shift
Description: The US enters DST and clocks are moved forward by 1 hour; Frequency: Twice per year; Next Release: Nov 7, 2010 FF Notes: If you live in the US you'll probably need to adjust your DST setting to ensure the calendar is in sync with your local time. If you live outside the US no adjustment is needed, but you'll notice a 1 hour difference in the time US calendar events occur; Acro Expand: Daylight Saving Time (DST);