Forex calendar
Monday, 01 March 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:45 | NZD | low | Visitor Arrivals m/m | 8.0% | -2.4% | |
| Measures: Change in the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 20 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 19, 2010 Why Traders Care: Tourism plays an important role in the economy - about 10% of the population is employed by the tourism industry, and a sizable portion of the nation's GDP is indirectly related to tourism; Also Called: International Travel; | ||||||
| 01:30 | AUD | low | AIG Manufacturing Index | 51.0 | 53.8 | |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of about 200 manufacturers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Manufacturing Index; Acro Expand: Australian Industry Group (AIG); | ||||||
| 01:45 | AUD | high | RBA Gov Stevens Speaks | |||
| Speaker: RBA Governor Glenn Stevens; Description: Due to participate in a panel discussion about challenges for regulation after the financial crisis at the Australian Securities Investment Commission Summer School 2010, in Melbourne; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: RBA Governor Sep 2006 - Sep 2013. Volatility is often experienced during his speeches as traders attempt to decipher interest rate clues; Why Traders Care: As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA); | ||||||
| 02:30 | AUD | low | MI Inflation Gauge m/m | 0.8% | 0.1% | |
| — | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | medium | Current Account | -14.7B | -17.3B | -17.5B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 31, 2010 FF Notes: The goods portion has no impact because it's a duplicate of the monthly Trade Balance data; Why Traders Care: It's directly linked to currency demand - a rising surplus indicates that foreigners are buying more of the domestic currency to execute transactions in the country; | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | low | Company Operating Profits q/q | -1.4% | 2.4% | 2.2% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of profits earned by corporations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: May 31, 2010 FF Notes: Source changed series calculation formula as of November 2001; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses are quickly affected by market conditions, and changes in their earnings can be an early signal of future economic activity such as spending, hiring, and investment; Also Called: Company Gross Operating Profits; | ||||||
| 04:00 | CNY | high | Manufacturing PMI | 55.8 | 55.2 | 52.0 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contract 261d ion. Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of CLSA Manufacturing PMI because the reports are tightly correlated. Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. Source first released in Jul 2005; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 700 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 05:00 | NZD | low | ANZ Commodity Prices m/m | 0.4% | 3.8% | |
| Measures: Change in the global price of exported commodities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 4 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because the tightly-correlated Australian commodity prices are released a few days earlier; Derived Via: The average price of the nation's main commodity exports are sampled on the global market and then compared to the previous sampling; Also Called: Commodity Price Index; Acro Expand: Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ); | ||||||
| 05:30 | CNY | medium | HSBC Manufacturing PMI | 57.4 | 55.8 | |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Tends to have more impact when it's released ahead of the government's Manufacturing PMI because the reports are tightly correlated; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation (HSBC), Purchasi 1388 ng Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 08:30 | AUD | medium | Commodity Prices y/y | -11.6% | -9.7% | |
| Measures: Change in the selling price of exported commodities; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Commodities account for over half of Australia's export earnings. Source changed series calculation formula as of Nov 2009; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of the nation's trade balance with other countries because rising commodity prices boost export income; Derived Via: The average selling price of the nation's main commodity exports are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling; Also Called: Index of Commodity Prices; | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | low | German Import Prices m/m | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.7% |
| Measures: Change in the price of imported goods purchased domestically; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 26 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 Also Called: Import Price Index; | ||||||
| 11:30 | CHF | medium | SVME PMI | 56.0 | 56.5 | 57.4 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first or second business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 200 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Schweizerischer Verband fur Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | low | Final Manufacturing PMI | 54.1 | 54.1 | 54.2 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Jun 2007, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, productio 1388 n, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | low | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.6% |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: Source first released monthly format in Dec 2009; Also Called: Jobless Rate; | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | high | Manufacturing PMI | 56.6 | 56.3 | 56.6 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Full reports are only available via subscription; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | medium | Net Lending to Individuals m/m | 1.5B | 0.7B | 2.0B |
| Measures: Change in the total value of new credit issued to consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's correlated with consumer spending and confidence - rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money; | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | low | Mortgage Approvals | 58K | 49K | 48K |
| Measures: Number of new mortgages approved for home purchases during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because about 60% of all mortgages are covered by the BBA Mortgage Approvals data released a few days earlier; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of housing market demand – most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market; Also Called: Approvals Secured on Dwellings; | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | Unemployment Rate | 9.9% | 10.1 3e8 | 9.9% | |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because there are several earlier indicators related to Eurozone labor conditions; Also Called: Jobless Rate, Eurozone Unemployment; | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | high | GDP m/m | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 60 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: Canada is unique in that they release fresh GDP data on a monthly basis. A quarterly GDP figure is also released, however it's merely a summation of the monthly data; Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | medium | RMPI m/m | -1.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% |
| — | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | low | IPPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 30, 2010 FF Notes: Only includes goods produced domestically; Also Called: Factory Gate Prices, Producer Prices; Acro Expand: Related Items | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | medium | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 FF Notes: Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals. Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. This is rumored to be the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation measure, but CPI is released about 15 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention; Acro Expand: Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | P 1388 ersonal Spending m/m | ||||
| Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted expenditures by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 FF Notes: This is significant data, though it tends to have a relatively mild impact because Retail Sales, which also covers consumer spending, is released about 2 weeks earlier; Why Traders Care: Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy; Also Called: Consumer Spending; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | low | Personal Income m/m | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 29, 2010 Why Traders Care: Income is correlated with spending - the more disposable income consumers have, the more likely they are to increase spending; | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | high | ISM Manufacturing PMI | 58.4 | 57.7 | 56.5 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effec 3e8 t: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Manufacturing ISM Report On Business; Acro Expand: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | low | Construction Spending m/m | -1.2% | -0.6% | -0.6% |
| Measures: Change in the total amount builders spent on construction projects; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | low | ISM Manufacturing Prices | 70.0 | 68.4 | 67.0 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the first business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: This is a component of PMI but reported separately as an inflation gauge. Above 50.0 indicates rising prices, below indicates falling prices; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when businesses pay more for goods and services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Derived Via: Survey of about 400 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of prices paid for goods and services; Also Called: Manufacturing Prices Paid; Acro Expand: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | low | ISM Manufacturing Prices | |||
| Measures the difference in value between total imports and total exports of goods. A positive reading means that more goods were exported than imported over the previous month. The Trade Balance has a sizable impact on GDP and at extremes can directly influence the country's currency value. | ||||||
Tuesday, 02 March 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:30 | JPY | medium | Household Spending y/y | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.7% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted expenditures by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 28 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 30, 2010 Why Traders Care: Consumer spending accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. It's one of the most important gauges of economic health due to the vast ripple effect consumer buying creates in the economy; | ||||||
| 02:30 | JPY | low | Unemployment Rate | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 30, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact relative to employment data from other countries because the Japanese economy is more reliant on the industrial sector than personal spending; Also Called: Jobless Rate; | ||||||
| 02:50 | JPY | low | Monetary Base y/y | 4.9% | 4.8% | 2.2% |
| Measures: Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and current account deposits held at the BOJ; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the second business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 2, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's positively correlated with interest rates - early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation; Acro Expand: Bank of Japan (BOJ); | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Building Approvals m/m | 5.2% | 0.7% | -7.0% |
| Measures: Change in the number of new building approvals issued; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining government approval is among the first steps in constructing a new building. Construction is important because it produces a wide-reaching ripple effect - for example, jobs are created for the construction workers, subcontractors and inspectors are hired, and various services are purchased by the builder; | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Retail Sales m/m | -0.9% | 0.8% | 3e8 1.2 |
| Measures: Change in the total value of sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: This is the earliest look at vital consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; | ||||||
| 06:30 | AUD | high | Cash Rate | 3.75% | 4.00% | 4.00% |
| — | ||||||
| 06:30 | AUD | high | RBA Rate Statement | |||
| Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: First Tuesday of the month, excluding January; Next Release: Apr 6, 2010 FF Notes: Until Dec 2007 the statement was only issued when the cash rate was changed; Why Traders Care: It's among the primary tools the RBA Reserve Bank Board uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA); | ||||||
| 09:45 | CHF | medium | GDP q/q | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.7% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 60 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 3, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | medium | Construction PMI | 48.6 | 48.9 | 48.5 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the construction industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the second business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 2, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Full reports are only available via subscription; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 170 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | medium | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the last business day of the current month; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: Eurostat bases this estimate on energy prices and EU member states that report early CPI data. While the report is narrow and void of line items, it's extremely early and can impact the market; Why Traders Care: Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | low | Italian Prelim CPI m/m | |||
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, around the end of the current month; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: There are 2 versions of CPI released about 25 days apart - Preliminary and Final. The Preliminary release is extremely early but has a muted impact due to Italy's relatively small impact on the Eurozone. The Final is not included for lack of significance; Acro Expand: Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | low | PPI m/m | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% |
| Measures: Change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a muted impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone's economy, release their PPI data earlier; Also Called: Industrial Producer Prices; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI); | ||||||
| 17:00 | CAD | high | BOC Rate Statement | |||
| Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Apr 20, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary tool the BOC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their 3e8 decision on interest rates and commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their decision. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future decisions; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC); | ||||||
| 17:00 | CAD | high | Overnight Rate | 0.25% | 0.25% | 0.25% |
| Measures: Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled 8 times per year; Next Release: Apr 20, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the BOC Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: BOC Governing Council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate; Also Called: Interest Rates, Key Interest Rate; Acro Expand: Bank of Canada (BOC); | ||||||
Wednesday, 03 March 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:30 | AUD | medium | AIG Services Index | 47.4 | 48.3 | |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed service-based companies; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of about 200 service-based companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Services Index; Acro Expand: Australian Industry Group (AIG); | ||||||
| 03:01 | GBP | medium | Nationwide Consumer Confidence | 74 | 71 | 80 |
| — | ||||||
| 03:01 | GBP | low | BRC Shop Price Index y/y | 2.3% | 1.7% | |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods purchased at BRC-member retail stores; Usual Eff 3e8 ect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 5 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: Leads the government-released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, but has a narrower scope as it only includes goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. This data is usually released 1 day before the Bank of England interest rate decision; Acro Expand: British Retail Consortium (BRC); | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | GDP q/q | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 65 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 2, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GDP); | ||||||
| 04:30 | JPY | medium | Average Cash Earnings y/y | -5.9% | -1.2% | 0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of employment income collected by workers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 Why Traders Care: Income is correlated with spending - the more disposable income consumers have, the more likely they are to increase spending; Also Called: Labor Cash Earnings, Total Cash Earnings; | ||||||
| 10:00 | EUR | medium | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.9% | -0.5% | 0.0% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles and gas stations; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Real Retail Sales; | ||||||
| 12:00 | EUR | low | Final Services PMI | 52.0 | 52.0 | 51.8 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry; U 3e8 sual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Jun 2007, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact. Full reports are only available to journalists registered with Markit; Derived Via: Survey of about 600 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | high | Services PMI | 54.5 | 55.0 | 58.4 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the third business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: Data is given to Thomson Reuters subscribers 2 minutes before the public release time listed on the calendar - early market reaction is usually a result of trades made by these subscribers. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. Full reports are only available via subscription; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | medium | Retail Sales m/m | 0.5% | -0.3% | -0.3% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: Tends to have a relatively muted impact because Germany and France, which account for about half of the Eurozone's economy, release earlier consumer spending data; Why Traders Care: It's the primary gauge of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity; | ||||||
| 15:30 | USD | low | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | -70.4% | -77.4% | |
| Measures: Change in the number of job cuts announced by employers; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 3 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: It's extremely early data, but historically has limited short-term correlation with overall labor conditions; Also Called: Job Cut Announcements; | ||||||
| 16:15 | USD | high | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | |||
| Measures: Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: Leads the government-released employment data by 2 days, and has slowly demonstrated its predictive qualities since its May 2006 debut. Source changed the calculation methodology in Feb 2007 and Dec 2008 to better align with the government’s data; Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall econ 3e8 omic activity; Derived Via: ADP provides payroll services to many corporations in the US. They use the data collected from their customers to derive the overall employment estimations; Acro Expand: Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (ADP); | ||||||
| 17:15 | USD | medium | FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks | |||
| Speaker: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren; Description: Due to speak at the Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank, in Philadelphia. Audience questions expected; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: 2010 FOMC voting member; Why Traders Care: Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | high | ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | 51.0 | 53.0 |
| — | ||||||
| 18:30 | USD | medium | Crude Oil Inventories | 3.0M | 1.2M | 4.1M |
| Measures: Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 4 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 10, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Why Traders Care: It influences the price of petroleum products which affects inflation, but also impacts growth as many industries rely on oil to produce goods; Also Called: Crude Stocks, Crude Levels; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA); | ||||||
| 22:00 | USD | medium | Beige Book | |||
| Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: 8 times per year, 2 weeks before each FOMC meeting; Next Release: Apr 14, 2010 FF Notes: This analysis is used by the FOMC to help make their next decision on interest rates. However, it tends to produce 3e8 a mild impact as the FOMC also receives 2 non-public books - the Green Book and the Blue Book - which are widely believed to be more influential to their rate decision; Derived Via: Anecdotal evidence supplied by the 12 Federal Reserve banks regarding local economic conditions in their district; Also Called: Current Economic Conditions; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); | ||||||
Thursday, 04 March 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02:50 | JPY | Capital Spending q/y | ||||
| — | ||||||
| 03:30 | AUD | high | Trade Balance | -2.17B | -1.57B | -1.18B |
| Measures: Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 1, 2010 FF Notes: A positive number indicates that more goods and services were exported than imported; Why Traders Care: Export demand and currency demand are directly linked because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports. Export demand also impacts production and prices at domestic manufacturers; Also Called: International Trade in Goods and Services; | ||||||
| 13:00 | EUR | low | Revised GDP q/q | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 65 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 4, 2010 FF Notes: The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 3 versions of GDP released about 20 days apart - Flash, Revised, and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Acro Expand: Gross Domestic Product (GD 3e8 P); | ||||||
| 15:00 | GBP | high | Official Bank Rate | 0.50% | 0.50% | 0.50% |
| Measures: Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the BOE to other banks; 3e8 Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled monthly; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: When there is a change in rates the MPC will also issue a statement. The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the MPC Statement which is focused on the future; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: MPC members vote on where to set the rate. The individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes; Also Called: Interest Rates; Acro Expan 3e8 d: Bank of England (BOE), Monetary Policy Committee (MPC); | ||||||
| 15:00 | GBP | high | Asset Purchase Facility | 200B | 200B | 200B |
| Measures: Total value of money the BOE will create and use to purchase assets in the open market; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled monthly; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: Source began this temporary program in Mar 2009, in response to the financial crisis; Why Traders Care: It increases demand for bonds which tends to lower long-term interest rates; Derived Via: MPC members vote on the total amount of money to create for the program. The individual votes are published 2 weeks later in the MPC Meeting Minutes; Also Called: Quantitative Easing Programme, Money Printing Programme; Acro Expand: Bank of England (BOE), Mon 1388 etary Policy Committee (MPC); | ||||||
| 15:45 | EUR | high | Minimum Bid Rate | 1.00% | 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Measures: Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled monthly; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: The rate decision is often priced in the market so it tends to be overshadowed by the ECB Press Conference held 45 minutes later; Why Traders Care: Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future; Derived Via: The 6 members of the ECB Executive Board and the 16 governors of the Euro area central banks vote on where to set the rate. The split of votes is not publicly revealed; Also Called: Interest Rates, Refi Rate, Repo Rate; | ||||||
| 16:30 | CAD | high | Building Permits m/m | -2.7% | 1.0% | -4.9% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of new building permits issued; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's an excellent gauge of future construction activity because obtaining a permit is among the first steps in constructing a new building; | ||||||
| 16:30 | EUR | high | ECB Press Conference | |||
| Speaker: ECB President and Vice President; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; Frequency: Scheduled monthly, about 45 minutes after the Minimum Bid Rate is announced; Next Release: Apr 8, 2010 FF Notes: The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The press conference is webcasted on the ECB website with a slight delay from real-time; Why Traders Care: It's the primary method the ECB uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, such as the overall economic outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy; Also Called: Interest Rate Statement, ECB News Conference; Acro Expand: European Central Bank (ECB); | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | medium | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% |
| Measures: Annualized change in labor efficiency when producing goods and services, excluding the farming industry; Frequency: Released quarterly, about 65 days after the quarter ends; Next Release: Jun 3, 2010 FF Notes: While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released a month apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact; Why Traders Care: Related Items | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | ||||
| — | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Unemployment Claims | 498K | 472K | 469K |
| Measures: The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week; Usual Effect: Actual < Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: This is the nation's earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week - there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes; Why Traders Care: Although it's generally viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is an important signal of overall economic health because consumer spending is highly correlated with labor-market conditions; Also Called: Jobless Claims, Initial Claims; | ||||||
| 16:30 | EUR | high | ECB Press Conference | |||
| Measures the change in number of people claiming unemployment related benefits over the previous month. A rising trend indicates a deteriorating labor market, which can weight on the economy. | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | medium | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | 6.2% | 6.2% | |
| The Services Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of economic performance. | ||||||
| 18:00 | CAD | high | Ivey PMI | 50.8 | 56.0 | 51.9 |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 5 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. This data series is not seasonally adjusted which increases deviations from month to month. Source first released in Dec 2000; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy; Derived Via: Survey of about 175 purchasing managers, selected geographically and by sector of activity to match the economy as a whole, which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Acro Expand: Purchasing Managers 1388 ' Index (PMI); | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | high | Pending Home Sales m/m | 0.8% | 1.4% | -7.6% |
| Measures: Change in the number of homes under contract to be sold but still awaiting the closing transaction, excluding new construction; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 5, 2010 FF Notes: This data is released about 15 days later than Existing Home Sales, but it's more forward-looking as a contract is signed several weeks before the home is counted as sold. Source first released in Mar 2005; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of economic health because the sale of a home triggers a wide-reaching ripple effect. For example, renovations are done by the new owners, a mortgage is sold by the financing bank, and brokers are paid to execute the transaction; Also Called: Pending Resales; | ||||||
| 18:00 | USD | medium | Factory Orders m/m | |||
| Measures: Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Mar 31, 2010 FF Notes: This report contains a revision of the Durable Goods Orders data released about a week earlier, and fresh data regarding non-durable goods; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders; | ||||||
| 18:30 | USD | low | Natural Gas 1388 Storage | -172B | -130B | -116B |
| Measures: Change in the number of cubic feet of natural gas held in underground storage during the past week; Usual Effect: No consistent effect - there are both inflationary and growth implications; Frequency: Released weekly, 5 days after the week ends; Next Release: Mar 11, 2010 FF Notes: While this is a US indicator, it most affects the loonie due to Canada's sizable energy sector; Also Called: Nat Gas Stocks, Nat Gas Inventories; Acro Expand: Energy Information Administration (EIA); | ||||||
| 21:15 | USD | medium | FOMC Member Bullard Speaks | |||
| Speaker: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President James Bullard; Description: Due to speak at the event sponsored by St Cloud State University, in Minnesota; Usual Effect: More hawkish than expected = Good for currency; FF Notes: 2010 FOMC voting member; Why Traders Care: Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy; Acro Expand: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); | ||||||
Friday, 05 March 2010
| Time | Currency | Economic impact | Event | Prev. | Forecast | Fact. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | CAD | Annual Budget Release | ||||
| Frequency: Released annually; FF Notes: This document outlines the Federal government's budget for the year, including expected spending and income levels, borrowing levels, financial objectives, and planned investments; Why Traders Care: Domestic government spending and borrowing levels can have a significant impact on the economy - increased spending generates work for contractors and creates jobs, while borrowing levels provide insight into the nation's underlying fiscal position; | ||||||
| 01:30 | AUD | low | AIG Construction Index | 57.7 | 52.8 | |
| Measures: Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed construction companies; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, on the fifth business day after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 FF Notes: Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction; Derived Via: Survey of about 120 construction companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; Also Called: Performance of Construction Index; Acro Expand: Australian Industry Group (AIG); | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | high | PPI Input m/m | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods and raw materials purchased by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 FF Notes: This data has added importance because it's released ahead of CPI; Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when manufacturers pay more for goods the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI); | ||||||
| 12:30 | GBP | low | PPI Output m/m | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.3% |
| Measures: Change in the price of goods sold by manufacturers; Usual Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 10 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 9, 2010 Also Called: Factory Gate Prices; Acro Expand: Producer Price Index (PPI); | ||||||
| 14:00 | EUR | medium | German Factory Orders m/m | -1.6% | 1.6% | 4.3% |
| Measures: Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers; Frequency: Released monthly, about 35 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's a leading indicator of production - rising purchase orders signal that manufacturers will increase activity as they work to fill the orders; Also Called: Industrial Orders, Manufacturing Orders; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Non-Farm Employment Change | |||
| Measures: Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry; Usua 3e8 l Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 2, 2010 FF Notes: This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts; Why Traders Care: Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity; Also Called: Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | high | Unemployment Rate | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.7% |
| Measures: Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month; Frequency: Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 2, 2010 Also Called: Jobless Rate; | ||||||
| 16:30 | USD | medium | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| — | ||||||
| 23:00 | USD | low | Consumer Credit m/m | -4.6B | -4.2B | 5.0B |
| Measures: Change in the total value of outstanding consumer credit that requires installment payments; Usual 3e8 Effect: Actual > Forecast = Good for currency; Frequency: Released monthly, about 7 days after the month ends; Next Release: Apr 7, 2010 Why Traders Care: It's correlated with consumer spending and confidence - rising debt levels are a sign that lenders feel comfortable issuing loans, and that consumers are confident in their financial position and eager to spend money; | ||||||
