The absence of the majority of the market players after the Christmas and expecting the New Year seals the development of the market’s events. The currency pairs are traded within narrow ranges in terms of insignificant trading capacities. The beginning of the initial day this week was on the dollar’s increase as the rumors of the profits repatriation by the American companies appeared. However, at the European session the situation has changed amidst the growth of the European stock indexes: the dollar appeared to be under a little pressure against the Europeans and lost the before tapped positions. Nevertheless, the “bugs” has fixed the negative result concerning the GB pound only summarizing the day; concerning the euro and yen the little favor was remarked. There were not much economic news; the manufacturing activity indicator for the Middle East in November published by Chicago FRS demonstrated the growth for 1.2 per cent, in accordance with the represented report the manufacturing index uplifted to the point of 84.2 – the highest level starting from December 2008. These data are considered to be another feature of the economic recovery in the USA thereby enforcing the probability of the crediting-monetary policy’s stiffening by the American regulator. Today the economic news will be represented with the data from the Conference Board and concern the dynamics of the consumer crediting index for December. The indicator is presupposed to demonstrate the raise to 53.0from 49.5 in November. By the way, it should be noticed that any sudden surprises concerning this indicator can challenge the adequate reaction from the side of the market.
EUR
The common currency’s attempt to fix the plus against the dollar on Monday session failed. The “bears” hasn’t kept a slight preference against the dollar that was observed in the middle of the session, resulting before mentioned the European currency stayed within the negative sector in the confrontation to the “bugs”. It’s supposed the investors have no doubts as for the Euro zone situation development prospects keep reasons for serious apprehensions. The crediting problems as for the countries of the Euro zone haven’t been solved still yet, and it further makes pressure upon the common currency. The economic calendar of the Euro zone was empty on Monday; today the consumer inflation data of Germany will be represented to the market today. The consumer prices index (CPI) for December is predicted to demonstrate the growth, 0.6 per cent m/m, 0.7 per cent y/y as it had been fixed -0.1 per cent m/m, 0.4 per cent y/y before. The harmonized CPI is also going to increase for 0.7 per cent m/m and 0.7 per cent according to the forecasts. As like as not this price’s dynamics can challenge the purchases’ splash of the euro as the deflation threaten has caused the doubts in concerns of steadiness as for the economic recovery in the Euro zone. However, it should be mentioned the purchases of the common currency will be short-termed if they exist.
GBP
The British pound appeared to be the steadiest at the last session, completing the trades with some plus to the dollar, but stayed within the frame of before formed lateral range. Possibly, the information from the “Hometrack” denoted the continuation of the price growth at the home market in December served the stable mood in favor of the sterling. The results of the research demonstrated +0.1 per cent m/m, -1.9 per cent y/y, when the previous indicators marked +0.2 per cent m/m, and -2.9 per cent y/y. The news background was limited by these data on Monday as it was a day-off on the “Isles”. Today session, likely to the previous one won’t be reach for economic data from Great Britain. The capacity of the disbursed mortgage loans in the 3rd quarter will be represented to the market. It’s presupposed the indicator will demonstrate some shortage of negative results, to -6.4 Billion of pound from -7.0 Billion. However, as it seems, this news won’t challenge the investors to increase the activity, obviously the "cable" will continue the ranging trades up to the end of the current year.
JPY
The Japanese currency was traded very dull against the dollar on Monday, staying within the narrow price bracket and completed the day with a little falling down. It was more economic data from Japan than from the other regions and they happened to be multidirectional as for their content. The retailing in November fell down for 1.0 per cent in annual comparison but increased monthly to 0.2 per cent, the wages in Japan also denoted the eighteenth month of the decrease in November, the curtail amounted to 2.8 per cent y/y, that was worse than the forecast expected 1.8 per cent y/y and the data of October, when it was observed -1.9 per cent. Meanwhile, the data expected at the market with special attention demonstrated the improvement – the manufacturing volumes appeared to be e more sufficient than the analysts expected, 2.6 per cent m/m, and -3.9 per cent y/y, against 0.5 per cent m/m, -15.1 per cent y/y earlier, at that the forecasts expected 2.5 per cent m/m, and -4.3 per cent y/y. No economic news from Japan are expected today, the pare USD/JPY will most likely continue "drifting" within the same range up to investors’ leaving for Christmas holydays.
Analysis prepared by:
Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analyst
