The trading session on Thursday turned out to be exciting and full of ambiguity. The US dollar found itself under the pressure, when pursuant to the market expectances the information about the solution as for the aid for Greece, the EU authorities reported that the agreement respect has already been achieved in this. However, the absence of the detailed plan of assistance, which was expected idleness by the investors for some time, inspired the “bears”' to the common currency’s sales-outs, which had lost about 150 points. And though later the euro has neglected its losses; resulting the day the US dollar fixed the “profit” against the common currency, as for the yen and the GB pound the ‘greenback” noted the losses. There wasn’t much economic news about the USA as the greater part of the information was postponed to be published on Friday – so today it will be represented. The main influencing factors on the “greenback” were the news from the Australia and China. The splash of the optimism and, of course, the pressure upon the US dollar at the beginning of the day were caused by the announcements that the unemployment level in the Lucky-Country had become lower than forecasted; and in the “Heavenly Empire” the inflation indexes had been more moderate than expected; and that in its turn diminished the anxieties about the possibility of the short increase of the rates in the PRC. The American statistics hasn’t actually provoked any response of the market. The number of the preliminary jobless claims in the USA last week was shortened to 43 thousand and summed 440 thousand, while the forecasts expected the decrease to 12 thousand. The capacity of the secondary claims has also fallen down for 79 thousand that brought the total number up to 4 538 thousand i.e., the least possible level for more than a year. The center of attention at the today session will be the data about the retailing for January. The forecasts resolve themselves into the fact that the retailing has increased for 0.3 per cent m/m, after the downfall for 0.3 per cent in December. Furthermore, the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan will be very interesting as it’s expected with the growth to 74.8 from 74.4; and also the information about the changes of capacities of commercial stocks, where it’s also expected to see the growth for 0.4 per cent. Speaking in a word, nothing negative is expected from the macro statistic as for the USA economy. Both the general situation and the market mood incline to the purchases of the American currency. That’s why it’s possible to presume that before the prolonged weekend as next Monday is a day-off in the USA the investors will prefer to escape into the US dollar.

EUR
   The common European currency was suffered by a difficult day on Thursday. A little enforcement of the euro at the very beginning of the trades amidst the information from the Australia and China and also the announcement of the EU authorities about the consensus building between the members of the Euro zone concerning the issue of the aid for Greece has been changed into a heavy downfall. The absence of the specific outline, which the market was looking forward for, rushed the euro down as for the US dollar and other majors. As it clarified later, at the press-conference, the leaders of the EU countries haven’t made a decision concerning the particular measures of aid for the Greek economy yet. It was spoken out by J.-C. Junker, the Head of the Ministers of Finances’ Group of the Euro zone’s countries. Later on, the euro has neglected some part of its losses in the forefront of claims from the side of the EU functionaries as the financial aid would be afforded to Greece anyway; though it have never managed to recover completely and completed the day with the minus against all its major “opponents”. Not much EU statistics was published. The German wholesale prices for January were represented. This index has demonstrated a confident growth; however, it hasn’t impressed the market players as their attention was attracted to the EU summit. The news background of today is represented with an interesting statistics’ set as the data of advancing evaluation of GDP for the 4th quarter concerning both Germany and the Euro zone in general will be announced. It’s presupposed that the quarterly growth will be observed for +0.2 per cent in Germany and +0.3 per cent in the Euro zone; at the same time the negative result will be further maintained per annum, -2.2 per cent and -1.9 per cent respectively. It seems to be these data within the forecasts will afford no grounds for any active steps at the market; although either better or worse than predicted they may instigate the relevant response.

GBP
   All the events that caused the troubles of the common European currency uplifted the popularity of the GB pound at the session on Thursday. The sterling grew up against all majors including the US dollar and became a leader. No important economic news, which could make influence upon the sequence of the market events in Great Britain, was published. The data from the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) were represented only. In accordance with this information the number of the cases of the lender’s accession of right to posses the property of the debtor has decreased largely in the 4th quarter i.e., the British started to settle with the creditors more successfully. The disbursement of loans delays have also lessened and made 87 300 compared to 92 100 in the 3rd quarter. The number of cases of lender’s accession of the appurtenant rights as for the debtor fell down to 10 200 after 11 700 in the previous quarter. Today no essential news from the “Isles” will be published as well. The sterling will be further kept under the influence of the external information that shapes both the opinions and expectances of the market. Meanwhile, it’s reasonable to make some predictions on the account of probable perspectives of the “cable”. Obviously, the GB pound is going to face hard times. That’s why the British currency will most likely stay under the pressure, and the sales-outs of the sterling will continue. The expectances of probable stiffening of the monetary-crediting policy, which dwindled to nothing after the last Bank of England Inflation Report; together with threatens of the situation when neither political party would have the majority in the parliament – against this background the British budgeting troubles will appeared to be even more nasty. All this speaks well for the British pound will loose its positions in a short run. The GB pound is likely to maintain its positions at the current session; moreover, it’ll make an attempt to enforce them a bit. However, the massive and intensive purchases of the sterling are less probable; it’s also thought the longer week-ends in the USA will make a restricting influence upon this currency

JPY
   The Japanese currency was traded a bit dull against the US dollar, but much more active concerning the euro and enforced itself in both cases. The investors’ escape out of risks and the completion carry trades foundered with the yen have obviously become the main cause of the interest to the Japanese currency. The data published today have demonstrated the improvement of the Japanese consumer sentiment in January as the householders’ confidence index grew up to 39.0 against 37.6 points, an as for the consumer confidence index – to 39.4 from 37.9 respectively. Obviously, the Japan currency’s prospects will further depend on the level of the risks inclination at the market i.e., the news from the continental Europe. If the news background concerning the EU countries’ budgets represents the negative information again the purchases of the yen will go on.

Analysis prepared by:

Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analyst