With this pair there is either the possibility of a continuation of the current rally, reaching above the 50-day MA and re-touching the 102.20 highs; or slightly more likely is that the down-move, which began at the end of Jan, has not completed and there will be another leg (perhaps C leg) lower, breaking pivot support at the lows and reaching perhaps the 97.90s. Alternatively the exchange rate could continue consolidating in a very narrow range as buyers and sellers balance each other out.

Analysis prepared by:

Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst